Linking Hydrology, Ecosystem Function, and Livelihood Outcomes in African Papyrus Wetlands Using a Bayesian Network Model
Linking Hydrology, Ecosystem Function, and Livelihood Outcomes in African Papyrus Wetlands Using a Bayesian Network Model
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使用贝叶斯网络模型将非洲纸莎草湿地的水文、生态系统功能和生计成果联系起来
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发表时间：
2013
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通讯作者：
G. Gettel
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作者：
A. Dam;J. Kipkemboi;M. M. Rahman;G. Gettel
肯尼亚西部尼安多纸莎草类湿地的水文、生态系统功能和生计成果之间的关系被整合到一个贝叶斯网络模型中，该模型有34个节点，其中包含生态水文学和社会经济研究成果以及利益攸关方协商的成果。评估了旱季和雨季的情景。在Nyando湿地目前的“平均”年，“生态系统功能”和“生计结果”为“良好”的概率分别为62%和19%。在干旱条件下，这两个值分别为33%和37%；在潮湿条件下，这些值分别为85%和6%，表明潮湿条件对生态系统有积极影响，但对生计有负面影响。生态系统功能和生计结果对洪水、转作农业、牲畜放牧和纸莎草类收获最为敏感。洪水条件限制了作物种植、牲畜放牧和植被收获，但对生态系统功能有积极影响。这种跨学科和参与性建模方法的优势在于，它允许纳入正式和非正式知识，允许对政策情景和生态系统服务之间的权衡进行评估，并认识到系统结果的不确定性。今后的工作将纳入管理政策和机构对资源使用的影响。该方法将为湿地的合理利用提供决策支持。
Relationships between hydrology, ecosystem function and livelihood outcomes in Nyando papyrus wetland in western Kenya were integrated in a Bayesian Network model with 34 nodes which was populated with results of ecohydrological and socio-economic research and stakeholder consultations. Scenarios for dry and wet seasons were evaluated. For a current “average” year in Nyando wetland the probabilities of “Ecosystem function” and “Livelihoods outcomes” being “good” were 62 and 19 %, respectively. Under dry conditions, these values changed to 33 and 37 %; and under wet conditions to 85 and 6 %, respectively, indicating that wet conditions had a positive effect on the ecosystem but a negative effect on livelihoods. Ecosystem function and livelihood outcomes were most sensitive to flooding, conversion to agriculture, livestock grazing, and papyrus harvest. Flooded conditions limit cropping, livestock herding and vegetation harvesting but have a positive effect on ecosystem function. The advantage of this interdisciplinary and participatory modeling approach is that it allows incorporation of formal and informal knowledge, allows evaluation of policy scenarios and trade-offs between ecosystem services, and recognizes uncertainty in system outcomes. Further work will incorporate the impact of management policies and institutions on resource use. This approach will be useful in decision support for wise use of wetlands.