Poverty and inequality implications of carbon pricing under the long-term climate target
Poverty and inequality implications of carbon pricing under the long-term climate target
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DOI：
10.1007/s11625-022-01206-y
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发表时间：
2022-09
影响因子：
6
通讯作者：
Shiya Zhao;S. Fujimori;T. Hasegawa;K. Oshiro;K. Sasaki
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Shiya Zhao;S. Fujimori;T. Hasegawa;K. Oshiro;K. Sasaki
许多国家采取了严格的气候政策，以尽量减少气候变化带来的风险。但这些政策可能会给家庭和穷人带来额外成本，并威胁他们的福祉。然而，气候政策对贫困和福利损失的影响很少在严格的长期气候变化减缓预测中体现。碳定价是一种具有成本效益的方法；它对家庭的影响因国家而异。本研究调查了中国向碳中和过渡期间碳定价的分配效应和贫困影响以及《巴黎协定》的长期目标。我们利用新开发的综合评估模型评估了未来情景中的多种贫困和公平标准。研究发现，减缓气候变化的努力不会对中国的减贫产生太大阻碍，在大多数情况下，2050 年 3.2 美元/人/天阈值下的贫困人数将低于 30 万人。碳税成为一个累退因素，主要是由于食品和能源产品价格上涨。这表明应考虑碳定价的分配效应。例如，补偿价格变化的补充政策（例如补贴和早期缓解行动）会导致长期价格适度上涨，值得考虑作为向 2°C 甚至 1.5°C 路径公正过渡的有效工具。
Many countries have taken stringent climate policies to minimize the risks by climate change. But these policies could burden households and the poor with the extra costs and threaten their wellbeing. However, the consequences of climate policies on poverty and welfare loss are seldom presented in stringent long-term climate change mitigation projections. Carbon pricing is a cost-effective approach; how it affects households varies among countries. This study investigated the distributional effects and poverty implications of carbon pricing in China during the transition towards carbon neutrality and the Paris Agreement’s long-term goals. We assessed multiple poverty and equity standards in future scenarios with a newly developed integrated assessment model. It was found that climate change mitigation efforts would not greatly hinder poverty alleviation in China, with the poverty headcount under the $3.2/cap/day-threshold being less than 0.3 million people in 2050 in most scenarios. A carbon tax became a regressive factor mainly due to price increases in food and energy goods. This indicates that the distributional effects on carbon pricing should be considered. For example, supplementary policies that compensate for price changes, such as subsidies and early mitigation actions, that lead to modest price increases in the long term are worthy of consideration as valid instruments for the just transition towards the 2 °C or even 1.5 °C pathway.