Selection of Provenances to Adapt Tropical Pine Forestry to Climate Change on the Basis of Climate Analogs
Selection of Provenances to Adapt Tropical Pine Forestry to Climate Change on the Basis of Climate Analogs
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DOI：
10.3390/f4010155
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发表时间：
2013-03-01
期刊：
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
Dvorak, William
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Leibing, Christoph;Signer, Johannes;Dvorak, William
孔雀松和山松在热带和亚热带的林业部门中发挥着重要作用，近几十年来，北卡罗来纳州立大学国际树木育种和保护计划 (Camcore) 的成员为这些松树种建立了大型、多地点的起源试验。这些试验中收集的数据为在不同气候的许多地区建立种植园提供了有关物种和来源选择的宝贵信息。由于气候正在迅速变化，选择正确的物种和种植来源可能变得越来越困难。在这项研究中，哥伦比亚、巴西和南非种植的生长表现与种植地点之间的气候差异程度相关。结果用于评估种子材料在气候变化下对四个 P. patula 种源和 6 个 P. tecunumanii 种源的适宜性。对于每个来源，计算了基于标准化欧几里得距离的气候差异，并在统计上与生长表现相关。我们根据气候距离与身高生长差异关系的拟合优度和统计显着性，利用大量现场数据评估了两种量化气候差异的方法。然后使用最佳方法作为身高生长来源变化的预测因子。特定种源模型用于预测不同气候变化情景下的种源表现。开发的特定种源模型能够将气候相似性与六分之五的 P. tecunumanii 种源的不同生长表现显着相关。对于孔雀草种源，我们没有发现任何相关性。结果表明，确定气候稳定、可实现高产的地点非常重要。在这些地点，可以种植生长最适范围高但窄的快速生长的 P. tecunumanii 种源。在气候变化方向和幅度不确定的地点，建议选择对不同温度和降水状况具有更大耐受性的孔雀草种源。我们的结果表明，使用气候相似性模型对种源试验数据进行分析有助于我们（1）在快速变化的环境中保持种植园生产力； (2) 提高我们对树种适应气候变化的了解。
Pinus patula and Pinus tecunumanii play an important role in the forestry sector in the tropics and subtropics and, in recent decades, members of the International Tree Breeding and Conservation Program (Camcore) at North Carolina State University have established large, multi-site provenance trials for these pine species. The data collected in these trials provide valuable information about species and provenance choice for plantation establishment in many regions with different climates. Since climate is changing rapidly, it may become increasingly difficult to choose the right species and provenance to plant. In this study, growth performance of plantings in Colombia, Brazil and South Africa was correlated to the degree of climatic dissimilarity between planting sites. Results are used to assess the suitability of seed material under a changing climate for four P. patula provenances and six P. tecunumanii provenances. For each provenance, climate dissimilarities based on standardized Euclidean distances were calculated and statistically related to growth performances. We evaluated the two methods of quantifying climate dissimilarity with extensive field data based on the goodness of fit and statistical significance of the climate distance relation to differences in height growth. The best method was then used as a predictor of a provenance change in height growth. The provenance-specific models were used to predict provenance performance under different climate change scenarios. The developed provenance-specific models were able to significantly relate climate similarity to different growth performances for five out of six P. tecunumanii provenances. For P. patula provenances, we did not find any correlation. Results point towards the importance of the identification of sites with stable climates where high yields are achievable. In such sites, fast-growing P. tecunumanii provenances with a high but narrow growth optimum can be planted. At sites with climate change of uncertain direction and magnitude, the choice of P. patula provenances, with greater tolerance towards different temperature and precipitation regimes, is recommended. Our results indicate that the analysis of provenance trial data with climate similarity models helps us to (1) maintain plantation productivity in a rapidly changing environment; and (2) improve our understanding of tree species' adaptation to a changing climate.