The Expected, Perceived, and Realized Inflation of US Households Before and During the COVID19 Pandemic
The Expected, Perceived, and Realized Inflation of US Households Before and During the COVID19 Pandemic
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DOI：
10.1057/s41308-022-00175-7
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发表时间：
2022-07-21
影响因子：
4.3
通讯作者：
Coibion, Olivier
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Weber, Michael;Gorodnichenko, Yuriy;Coibion, Olivier
我们使用匹配的家庭支出及其宏观经济预期的微观数据，研究了家庭在日常购物中实现的通胀与他们在疫情之前和疫情期间感知和预期的通胀水平之间的联系。随着疫情在美国蔓延，美国家庭对通胀预期的分歧沿着通胀的平均感知和预期水平。与此同时，家庭一级的实际通货膨胀变得更加分散。在大流行期间，低收入、低教育程度和黑人家庭的实际通货膨胀率比其他家庭增长更大。实际通货膨胀率和感知通货膨胀率的离散度在很大程度上解释了通货膨胀预期离散度的上升。最后，家庭在疫情期间共同修正了通胀和失业预期，这与疫情的供应面观点一致。
Using matched micro-data on the spending of households and their macroeconomic expectations, we study the link between the realized inflation of households in their daily shopping and their perceived and expected levels of inflation both before and during the pandemic. As the pandemic spread across the USA, disagreement among US households about inflation expectations surged along with the average perceived and expected level of inflation. Simultaneously, realized inflation at the household level became more dispersed. During the pandemic, low income, low education, and Black households experienced a larger increase in realized inflation than other households. Dispersion in realized and perceived inflation explains a large share of the rise in dispersion in inflation expectations. Finally, households jointly revised their inflation and unemployment expectations during the pandemic, consistent with a supply-side view of the pandemic.