Spatiotemporal Simulation of Future Land Use/Cover Change Scenarios in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area
Spatiotemporal Simulation of Future Land Use/Cover Change Scenarios in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area
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DOI：
10.3390/su10062056
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发表时间：
2018-06
期刊：
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Ruci Wang;Ahmed Derdouri;Y. Murayama
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Ruci Wang;Ahmed Derdouri;Y. Murayama
模拟未来的土地利用/覆盖变化对于城市规划者和决策者（尤其是在大都市区）维持可持续的环境非常重要。本研究调查了 2007 年至 2017 年东京都市区 (TMA) 土地利用/覆盖的变化，作为使用监督分类的第一步。其次，根据地图结果，我们采用元胞自动机和马尔可夫模型组成的混合模型预测了 2027 年和 2037 年的预期变化模式。下一步是确定模型输入，其中包括影响研究区域土地利用/覆盖分布的建模变量，例如到中央商务区（CBD）的距离和到铁路的距离，以及2007年和2017年的分类地图。最后，我们考虑了模拟土地利用/覆盖变化的三种情景：自发、次区域开发和绿地改善。模拟结果根据不同场景显示出不同的变化模式。次区域发展方案是最有前途的，因为它平衡了城市面积、资源和绿地。这项研究为规划者提供了有关 TMA 变化趋势以及维持区域可持续发展可能遇到的未来挑战的重要见解。
Simulating future land use/cover changes is of great importance for urban planners and decision-makers, especially in metropolitan areas, to maintain a sustainable environment. This study examines the changes in land use/cover in the Tokyo metropolitan area (TMA) from 2007 to 2017 as a first step in using supervised classification. Second, based on the map results, we predicted the expected patterns of change in 2027 and 2037 by employing a hybrid model composed of cellular automata and the Markov model. The next step was to decide the model inputs consisting of the modeling variables affecting the distribution of land use/cover in the study area, for instance distance to central business district (CBD) and distance to railways, in addition to the classified maps of 2007 and 2017. Finally, we considered three scenarios for simulating land use/cover changes: spontaneous, sub-region development, and green space improvement. Simulation results show varied patterns of change according to the different scenarios. The sub-region development scenario is the most promising because it balances between urban areas, resources, and green spaces. This study provides significant insight for planners about change trends in the TMA and future challenges that might be encountered to maintain a sustainable region.