A cohort-based analysis of labor force participation for advanced economies
A cohort-based analysis of labor force participation for advanced economies
复制标题
发达经济体劳动力参与度的队列分析
DOI：
10.5089/9781484355251.001
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发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
P. Topalova
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
F. Grigoli;Z. Kóczán;P. Topalova
发达经济体正处于重大的人口转变之中，老年人口数量急剧增加。然而，发达经济体在劳动力参与率和男性和女性的劳动力依恋方面经历了不同的轨迹。我们使用 1985 年至 2016 年期间 17 个发达经济体的队列模型，记录了生命周期中常见参与模式的重要作用，以及这些模式在代际间的转变，尤其是对女性而言。新的女性群体导致年龄参与率的上升。然而，这一过程在大多数国家都处于停滞状态，在一些国家还出现了逆转的迹象。我们预计未来三十年的参与率将大幅下降，中等发达经济体的总参与率预计将下降 5.5 个百分点。说明性模拟表明，缩小性别差距、延长工作寿命和实施鼓励劳动力供应的政策有助于减轻但可能无法完全抵消人口压力。
Advanced economies are in the midst of a major demographic transition, with the number of elderly rising precipitously. Yet, advanced economies experienced different trajectories in labor force participation rates and workforce attachment of men and women. Using a cohort model for 17 advanced economies during 1985–2016, we document a significant role of common patterns of participation over the life cycle and shifts in these patterns across generations, especially for women. New cohorts of women led to upward shifts in the age participation profile. However, this process plateaued in most countries, with signs of reversal in some. We project sizable declines in participation rates over the next three decades, with aggregate participation forecast to decline by 5.5 percentage points for the median advanced economy. Illustrative simulations show that closing gender gaps, extending working lives, and implementing policies encouraging labor supply can help attenuate, but may not fully offset, demographic pressures.