Strategic decision support for long-term conservation management planning.
Strategic decision support for long-term conservation management planning.
复制标题
长期保护管理规划的战略决策支持。
DOI：
10.1016/j.foreco.2021.119533
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发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
S. Paplanus
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Eric S. Abelson;K. Reynolds;P. Manley;S. Paplanus
前瞻性思维的保护规划可以受益于模拟未来的景观，从多个替代管理方案的结果。然而，长期的景观建模和建模结果的下游分析可能会导致大量的数据，这些数据很难以决策者容易访问的方式进行收集、分析和报告。在这项研究中，我们开发了一个决策支持过程，以评估建模的森林条件产生的五个管理方案，在100年的加州的太浩湖流域，为此，我们借鉴了一个大型而复杂的层次数据集，旨在评估景观弹性。用于通知景观弹性分析的景观特征的轨迹进行了建模与空间显式的LANDIS-II植被模拟器。其他景观特征的下游模拟输出来自LANDIS-II输出（例如，野生动物状况、水质、火灾影响）。后期的建模过程导致在高空间和时间分辨率的高维度的景观特征的海量数据集的生成。最终，我们的分析将数百个数据输入提炼成100年时间范围内五个模型化管理场景的绩效轨迹。然后，我们根据年度间的变化以及绝对和相对绩效评估了每个管理方案。我们发现，管理方案更加强调积极主动的生物量减少优于管理方法与最小的生物量减少。这些结果以及产生这些结果的过程为决策者提供了基于合理、透明和可重复的决策支持过程的森林动态洞察力。
Forward thinking conservation-planning can benefit from modeling future landscapes that result from multiple alternative management scenarios. However, long-term landscape modeling and downstream analyses of modeling results can lead to massive amounts of data that are difficult to assemble, analyze, and to report findings in a way that is easily accessible to decision makers. In this study, we developed a decision support process to evaluate modeled forest conditions resulting from five management scenarios, across 100 years in California’s Lake Tahoe basin; to this end we drew upon a large and complex hierarchical dataset intended to evaluate landscape resilience. Trajectories of landscape characteristics used to inform an analysis of landscape resilience were modeled with the spatially explicit LANDIS-II vegetation simulator. Downstream modeling outputs of additional landscape characteristics were derived from the LANDIS-II outputs (e.g., wildlife conditions, water quality, effects of fire). The later modeling processes resulted in the generation of massive data sets with high dimensionality of landscape characteristics at both high spatial and temporal resolution. Ultimately, our analysis distilled hundreds of data inputs into performance trajectories for the five modeled management scenarios over a 100-year time horizon. We then evaluated each management scenario based on inter-year variability, and absolute and relative performance. We found that management scenarios with a greater emphasis on proactive biomass reduction outperformed management approaches with minimal biomass reduction. These results, and the process that led to them, provided decision makers with insight into forest dynamics based on a rational, transparent, and repeatable decision support processes.