The Gas Isotope Interpretation Tool: A Novel Method To Better Predict Production Decline
The Gas Isotope Interpretation Tool: A Novel Method To Better Predict Production Decline
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DOI：
10.3997/2214-4609.201602336
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发表时间：
2016-10
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Ling Gao;Y. Tang;Sheng Wu;A. Deev;R. Olson
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文献类型：
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作者：
Ling Gao;Y. Tang;Sheng Wu;A. Deev;R. Olson
产量递减预测对于了解油气井的生产状况和寿命具有重要意义。最常用的预测方法是根据现有的产量数据进行递减曲线拟合。然而，这些参数往往约束得很差，尤其是在生产率数据有限的情况下。为更好地预测生产气井的资源量和寿命，建立了一种新的气同位素解释工具。该工具基于生产过程中不同气体释放过程导致的甲烷（CH4）碳同位素比率的演变。我们成功地将该工具应用于Barnett页岩的一口生产页岩气井。我们使用专有的、可现场部署的天然气同位素分析仪（NGIA）获得了大约一年的实时甲烷碳同位素数据。我们对该井的预测表明，总储量将达到734 - 77.5亿立方英尺。到30年，产量可能会下降到200-225 Mcf/天，而经验Arps公式将预测在较长一段时间内的显著高产量。因此，这种新的产量递减预测方法为未来油井产量和预期的最终可采储量（EUR）提供了重要的约束条件。
Production decline prediction is important to understand the performance and life span of oil and gas wells. The most common prediction method is decline curve fitting based on available production rate data. However, the parameters are often poorly constrained, especially when the production rate data is limited. In this study, we establish a novel gas isotope interpretation tool to better predict the resource quantity and life span of producing gas wells. This tool is based on the evolution of methane (CH4) carbon isotope ratios due to different gas releasing processes during the production. We successfully applied the tool to a producing shale gas well in the Barnett Shale. We obtained real-time methane carbon isotope data for about a year using our proprietary, field-deployable natural gas isotope analyzer (NGIA). Our prediction in this well shows that the total reserve would reach 7.34-7.75 bcf. The production rate may decline to 200-225 Mcf/day by 30 yr, whereas the empirical Arps’ equation would predict a significantly high production rate for a longer period of time. The novel production decline prediction method thus provides the important constraint on the future well production and expected ultimate recoverable reserves (EUR).