ESTIMATES OF DISEASE INCIDENCE IN WOMEN BASED ON ANTENATAL OR NEONATAL SEROPREVALENCE DATA - HIV IN NEW-YORK-CITY
ESTIMATES OF DISEASE INCIDENCE IN WOMEN BASED ON ANTENATAL OR NEONATAL SEROPREVALENCE DATA - HIV IN NEW-YORK-CITY
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DOI：
10.1002/sim.4780131809
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发表时间：
1994-09-30
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
MEDLEY, GF
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
ADES, AE;MEDLEY, GF
开发了分段恒定发病率模型，以根据年龄和时间特定的产前或新生儿血清阳性率数据来估计女性的感染程度。与未感染的女性相比，在感染后的纳入率变化以及相对纳入率随日历时间的变化方面，考虑了血清调查中感染女性的差异纳入。这些模型适用于从 1988 年至 1992 年纽约市黑人和西班牙裔妇女所生新生儿中收集的匿名 HIV 血清流行率数据，并通过最大似然估计发病率和生育参数。纳入率参数的估计与已知的艾滋病毒自然史非常吻合。该数据无法区分年龄和时间对发病率影响的加法和乘法组合。发病率很大程度上取决于年龄，20-34 岁女性发病率最高。有强有力的证据表明，自 1982 年至 1984 年以来，西班牙裔女性的发病率一直在下降。结果表明，随着时间的推移，发病率趋势可能会受到感染和未感染女性相对纳入率变化的影响。
Piecewise constant incidence models were developed to estimate the force of infection in women from age-and time-specific antenatal or neonatal seroprevalence data. Differential inclusion of infected women in sere-surveys compared to uninfected women was taken into account, with respect to both changes in inclusion rate following infection, and changes in relative inclusion rate over calendar time. These models were applied to anonymous HIV seroprevalence data collected from neonates born to black and Hispanic women in New York City 1988-1992, with incidence and fertility parameters estimated by maximum likelihood. Estimates of inclusion rate parameters accorded well with what is known about the natural history of HIV. The data could not distinguish between additive and multiplicative combination of the effects of age and time on incidence. Incidence was strongly dependent on age with the highest incidence in women aged 20-34 years. There was strong evidence that incidence had been falling in Hispanic women since 1982-1984. The results illustrate the extent to which trends in incidence over time may be confounded by changes in the relative inclusion rate of infected and uninfected women.