Assessing the Diversity of the Form of Age-Specific Changes in Adult Mortality from Captive Mammalian Populations
Assessing the Diversity of the Form of Age-Specific Changes in Adult Mortality from Captive Mammalian Populations
复制标题
评估圈养哺乳动物种群成年死亡率特定年龄变化形式的多样性
DOI：
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
J. Gaillard
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Victor Ronget;J. Lemaitre;M. Tidière;J. Gaillard
精算衰老（即，死亡率的年龄特异性增加）在哺乳动物物种中普遍存在，但我们目前对精算衰老在物种中表现出的形式多样性的理解仍然有限。虽然已经提出了几种数学模型来模拟精算衰老，但对于使用哪种模型仍然没有达成共识，特别是在比较物种之间的死亡率模式时。为了填补这一知识空白，我们使用衰老研究中常用的模型（即，Gompertz、Weibull和logistic）在61种哺乳动物圈养种群中使用贝叶斯生存轨迹分析（BaSTA）方法。高达79%的物种，Gompertz死亡率随年龄的增长是最简约的模型，令人满意地描述了成年人的年龄特异性死亡率变化的形状。这突出表明，死亡率增加的形式在哺乳动物物种中大多是一致的，并且遵循Gompertz规则，但有一些罕见的例外。这一结果的影响是双重的。首先，Gompertz死亡率增加率应用于哺乳动物的跨物种比较分析，正如一些研究所做的那样。第二，虽然Gompertz模型准确地描述了精算衰老在大多数哺乳动物中，也有显着的例外，并导致这种偏离指数死亡率增加的因素在成年阶段值得进一步调查。
Actuarial senescence (i.e., the age-specific increase in mortality rate) is pervasive across mammalian species, but our current understanding of the diversity of forms that actuarial senescence displays across species remains limited. Although several mathematical models have been proposed to model actuarial senescence, there is still no consensus on which model to use, especially when comparing mortality patterns among species. To fill this knowledge gap, we fitted and compared different forms of increase using models commonly used in senescence studies (i.e., Gompertz, Weibull, and logistic) across 61 species of mammalian captive populations using the Bayesian Survival Trajectory Analysis (BaSTA) approach. For as much as 79% of the species, a Gompertz increase of mortality with age was the most parsimonious model that satisfactorily described the shape of age-specific mortality changes in adults. This highlights that the form of the increase in mortality is mostly consistent across mammalian species and follows the Gompertz rule with some rare exceptions. The implications of that result are twofold. First, the Gompertz rate of mortality increase should be used in cross-species comparative analyses of mammals, as already done in some studies. Second, although the Gompertz model accurately describes actuarial senescence in most mammals, there are notable exceptions, and the factors causing this deviation from an exponential mortality increase during the adult stage warrant further investigation.
影响因子：
9.8
作者：
Upham, Nathan S.;Esselstyn, Jacob A.;Jetz, Walter
通讯作者：
Jetz, Walter