Relationship between ENSO and snow covered area in the Mekong and Yellow river basins.
Relationship between ENSO and snow covered area in the Mekong and Yellow river basins.
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发表时间：
2005
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通讯作者：
A. Kiem;Mikhail V. Geogievsky;H. Hapuarachchi;H. Ishidaira;K. Takeuchi
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作者：
A. Kiem;Mikhail V. Geogievsky;H. Hapuarachchi;H. Ishidaira;K. Takeuchi
最近应用山梨大学水文模型（YHyM）的湄公河和黄河流域显示显着的年际变化，观测流量在冬季后的几个月（即3月至6月/7月）。厄尔尼诺/南方涛动（ENSO）在这几个月的影响是最小的，因此，观察到的流量的变化是不能解释的变化后，冬季降水。本研究探讨了ENSO、冬季积雪和冬季后融雪之间的关系，作为观察到的冬季后流量年际变化的潜在原因。结果表明，厄尔尼诺（拉尼娜）年与湄公河和黄河流域积雪面积（SCA）的年平均值有关，因此，观测到的冬季后流量的年际变化与ENSO有关。这项研究强调需要准确的SCA和融雪模型，以减少水文预测的不确定性与一定比例的SCA流域，即使这个百分比不是很大。此外，这项研究还说明了自然气候变化对全球水资源的重大和潜在的可预测影响，随着未来对水的需求增加，特别是随着欠发达国家变得更加发达，这种影响将变得越来越重要。
Recent applications of the University of Yamanashi Hydrological Model (YHyM) to the Mekong and Yellow river basins reveals significant inter-annual variability in observed discharge during post-winter months (i.e. March to June/July. The impact of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during these months is minimal and therefore the variation in observed discharge is not explained by variation in post-winter precipitation. This study investigates the relationship between ENSO, winter snow accumulation and post-winter snowmelt as a potential cause of the observed inter-annual variability in post-winter discharge. The results indicate that El Nino (La Nina) years are associated with above (below) average snow covered area (SCA) in both the Mekong and Yellow river basins and therefore the inter-annual variability in observed post-winter discharge is related to ENSO. This study emphasises the need for accurate SCA and snowmelt models in order to reduce uncertainty in hydrological predictions for basins with some percentage of SCA, even if this percentage is not very large. In addition, this study illustrates a significant, and potentially predictable, impact of natural climate variability on a global water resource that will become increasingly important as the demand for water increases in the future, particularly as less developed countries become more developed.