The future potential for wine production in Scotland under high-end climate change
The future potential for wine production in Scotland under high-end climate change
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DOI：
10.1007/s10113-017-1240-3
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发表时间：
2019-03-01
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
Madsen, Marianne S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Dunn, Miriam;Rounsevell, Mark D. A.;Madsen, Marianne S.
葡萄酒生产依赖于气候，对天气变化高度敏感，这使得该行业成为当前和未来气候变化影响的良好指标。在高端气候变化（HECC）下，预计到21世纪末，苏格兰的气温将大幅上升。这就增加了未来温度变得足够高以支持酿酒葡萄生长的可能性。在本文中，我们探讨在何种程度上苏格兰可能成为适合HECC下的葡萄酒生产使用气候模拟方法。具体而言，我们解决以下问题。预计苏格兰世纪末的气温变化是多少？欧洲目前的气候（基于夏季和年气温）与HECC预测的21世纪末苏格兰的气候相似吗？这些地方目前是否有酿酒葡萄种植区？接近21世纪世纪末的温度类似情况发生在欧洲更南的纬度地区，由于大陆气候的影响，从西向东出现了一些变化。仅温度模拟就与欧洲目前的几个酿酒葡萄种植区相匹配，这表明苏格兰未来的气候可以支持葡萄酒生产。然而，当降水和/或岩性和地形也被考虑在内，没有匹配的发现与现有的欧洲酿酒葡萄种植区。这项研究表明，气候模拟与其他环境数据集相结合的使用如何有助于了解未来气候变化的影响，特别是在HECC下。
Wine production is climate dependent and highly sensitive to weather variability, which makes the sector a good indicator of ongoing and future climate change impacts. Under high-end climate change (HECC), temperatures in Scotland are projected to increase significantly by the end of the twenty-first century. This raises the possibility of future temperatures becoming sufficiently high to support the growth of wine grapes. In this paper, we explore to what extent Scotland might become suitable for wine production under HECC using a climate analogue approach. Specifically, we address the following questions. What are the projected late twenty-first century temperature changes in Scotland? Where in Europe are current climates (based on summer and annual temperatures) similar to those projected for Scotland by the end of the twenty-first century under HECC? Are any of these locations currently wine grape growing regions? The temperature analogues towards the end of the twenty-first century occurred at more southerly latitudes in Europe, with some variability from west to east arising from the influence of continental climates. Temperature analogues alone match with several current wine grape growing regions of Europe, suggesting that future climates in Scotland could support wine production. However, when precipitation and/or lithology and topography are also taken into account, no matches were found with existing European wine grape growing regions. This study demonstrates how the use of climate analogues in combination with other environmental datasets can be useful in understanding future climate change impacts, especially under HECC.