Climate-induced changes in the suitable habitat of cold-water corals and commercially important deep-sea fishes in the North Atlantic
Climate-induced changes in the suitable habitat of cold-water corals and commercially important deep-sea fishes in the North Atlantic
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DOI：
10.1111/gcb.14996
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发表时间：
2020-02-20
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
Carreiro-Silva, Marina
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Morato, Telmo;Gonzalez-Irusta, Jose-Manuel;Carreiro-Silva, Marina
深海通过吸收和储存热量和二氧化碳，在全球气候调节中发挥着关键作用。然而，这种调节作用导致深层沃茨变暖、酸化和脱氧，导致海底食物供应减少。这些变化及其预测可能会影响深海动物的生产力、生物多样性和分布，从而损害关键的生态系统服务。了解气候变化如何导致深海物种分布的变化，对于制定管理措施至关重要。我们使用环境生态位模型，沿着最好的现有物种发生数据和环境参数，为关键冷水珊瑚和具有重要商业价值的深海鱼类物种建立了栖息地适宜性模型，（1951-2000年）环境条件，并预测在严重，北大西洋未来高排放（2081-2100年）气候预测（RCP8.5情景）。我们的模型预测冷水珊瑚的适宜栖息地减少28%-100%，深海鱼类的适宜栖息地向高纬度转移2.0度-9.9度。最大的适宜栖息地减少预计为石珊瑚Lophelia pertusa和珊瑚Paragorgia arborea，分别减少至少79%和99%。我们预测到2100年，只有Helicolenus dacquipterus和Spectes mentella的适宜生境扩大（20%-30%），主要是通过北方纬度范围的扩大。我们的研究结果预测，到2100年，北大西洋的石珊瑚（现今适宜栖息地的30%-42%）的气候避难所位置有限，Acanella arbuscula和Aramogorgia armata的避难所位置甚至更小（6%-14%），几乎没有P. arborea的避难所。我们的研究结果强调，需要了解预期的气候变化将如何影响深海物种的分布，包括商业上重要的鱼类和基础物种，并强调了确定和保护气候避难所的重要性，一系列基于区域的规划和管理工具。
The deep sea plays a critical role in global climate regulation through uptake and storage of heat and carbon dioxide. However, this regulating service causes warming, acidification and deoxygenation of deep waters, leading to decreased food availability at the seafloor. These changes and their projections are likely to affect productivity, biodiversity and distributions of deep-sea fauna, thereby compromising key ecosystem services. Understanding how climate change can lead to shifts in deep-sea species distributions is critically important in developing management measures. We used environmental niche modelling along with the best available species occurrence data and environmental parameters to model habitat suitability for key cold-water coral and commercially important deep-sea fish species under present-day (1951-2000) environmental conditions and to project changes under severe, high emissions future (2081-2100) climate projections (RCP8.5 scenario) for the North Atlantic Ocean. Our models projected a decrease of 28%-100% in suitable habitat for cold-water corals and a shift in suitable habitat for deep-sea fishes of 2.0 degrees-9.9 degrees towards higher latitudes. The largest reductions in suitable habitat were projected for the scleractinian coral Lophelia pertusa and the octocoral Paragorgia arborea, with declines of at least 79% and 99% respectively. We projected the expansion of suitable habitat by 2100 only for the fishes Helicolenus dactylopterus and Sebastes mentella (20%-30%), mostly through northern latitudinal range expansion. Our results projected limited climate refugia locations in the North Atlantic by 2100 for scleractinian corals (30%-42% of present-day suitable habitat), even smaller refugia locations for the octocorals Acanella arbuscula and Acanthogorgia armata (6%-14%), and almost no refugia for P. arborea. Our results emphasize the need to understand how anticipated climate change will affect the distribution of deep-sea species including commercially important fishes and foundation species, and highlight the importance of identifying and preserving climate refugia for a range of area-based planning and management tools.