Modeling adoption timing of autonomous vehicles: innovation diffusion approach
Modeling adoption timing of autonomous vehicles: innovation diffusion approach
复制标题
自动驾驶汽车的采用时间建模：创新扩散方法
DOI：
10.1007/s11116-018-9947-7
复制
发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
4.3
通讯作者：
A. Mohammadian
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Ramin Shabanpour;Ali Shamshiripour;A. Mohammadian
自动驾驶汽车(AVs)被认为是一种颠覆经济的交通技术，将为社会带来多种好处，并导致出行行为和网络性能的重大变化。然而，政策制定者面临的关键问题之一是，缺乏对其市场渗透率的合理估计。本研究旨在量化不同驱动因素对汽车使用时机的影响。为此，我们开发了一个创新扩散模型，在该模型中，个人采用AVS等新技术的倾向受到创新愿望和模仿社会其他部分的需要的影响。它还捕捉到了人与人之间异质性的各种来源。我们发现，根据我们对AVs市场价格随时间变化的假设，它们在我们研究地区(芝加哥大都市区)的市场渗透率最终将达到71.3%。此外，模型估计结果显示，广泛的社会人口因素、出行模式指标、技术意识和对AVS的感知对人们采用AVS的时机决策有影响。例如，经常长途旅行的人被发现更具创新性地做出收养决定，而那些一生中经历过事故的人被发现更受口碑的影响。
Autonomous vehicles (AVs) are expected to act as an economically-disruptive transportation technology offering several benefits to the society and causing significant changes in travel behavior and network performance. However, one of the critical issues that policymakers are facing is the absence of a sound estimation of their market penetration. This study is an effort to quantify the effect of different drivers on the adoption timing of AVs. To this end, we develop an innovation diffusion model in which individuals’ propensities to adopt a new technology such as AVs takes influence from a desire to innovate and a need to imitate the rest of the society. It also captures various sources of inter-personal heterogeneity. We found that conditional on our assumptions regarding the changes in market price of AVs over time, their market penetration in our study region (Chicago metropolitan area) will eventually reach 71.3%. Further, model estimation results show that a wide range of socio-demographic factors, travel pattern indicators, technology awareness, and perceptions of AVs are influential in people’s AV adoption timing decision. For instance, frequent long-distance travelers are found to make the adoption decision more innovatively while those who have experienced an accident in their lifetime are found to be more influenced by word of mouth.