The probabilistic life time prediction model of oil pipeline due to local corrosion crack
The probabilistic life time prediction model of oil pipeline due to local corrosion crack
复制标题
输油管道局部腐蚀裂纹概率寿命预测模型
DOI：
10.1016/j.tafmec.2014.04.002
复制
发表时间：
2014-04-01
影响因子：
5.3
通讯作者：
Zheng, Maosheng
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hu, Jun;Tian Yangyang;Zheng, Maosheng
基于跨尺度损伤过程，提出了一种四阶段概率损伤模型，用于处理输油管道局部腐蚀裂纹。首先确定了寿命预测的关键参数，然后建立了概率损伤模型，并利用蒙特卡罗模拟（MCS）进行了数值计算。最后，通过实例验证了该模型的有效性.结果表明，该管道的使用寿命约为20.55年，管壁厚度、运行压差和腐蚀电流密度是决定该管道使用寿命的3个关键参数;在能可靠检测出10 mm表面裂纹长度的情况下，最长检修周期应小于4.71年。(C)2014爱思唯尔有限公司版权所有。
A four-stage probabilistic damage model is proposed basis of cross-scale damage processes to deal with the local corrosion crack of oil pipeline. At first, some key parameters for life time prediction were determined; then the probabilistic damage model is formulated and numerically calculated by using Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). Furthermore, the model is used to deal with an example in order to check its validity. The results show that the life-span of this pipeline is nearly 20.55 years, and the pipe wall thickness, operating pressure difference and corrosion electric current density are the three key parameters to determine the span-life of this pipeline; the longest examination and repair period should be less than 4.71 years for safety when the surface crack length of 10 mm can be detected reliably. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.