Visualizing probabilistic flood forecast information: expert preferences and perceptions of best practice in uncertainty communication
Visualizing probabilistic flood forecast information: expert preferences and perceptions of best practice in uncertainty communication
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DOI：
10.1002/hyp.9253
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发表时间：
2011-12
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
F. Pappenberger;E. Stephens;J. Thielen;P. Salamon;D. Demeritt;Schalk Jan Andel;F. Wetterhall;L. Alfieri
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
F. Pappenberger;E. Stephens;J. Thielen;P. Salamon;D. Demeritt;Schalk Jan Andel;F. Wetterhall;L. Alfieri
本文的目的是通过了解不同的概率预测信息可视化方法的感知，改善水文集合预测系统（HEPS）产生的概率洪水预报的交流。本研究侧重于专家间沟通，并根据个人用户所需的信息内容来解释可视化需求的差异。本研究中涉及的专家组的看法很重要，因为他们是现有HEPS的设计者和主要用户。然而，他们有时拒绝向公众发布不确定性信息，因为他们怀疑这些信息能否以非专家容易理解的方式成功传达。在本文中，我们探讨了现有HEPS可视化方法的优点和缺点，从而制定了关于HEPS可视化和通信的最佳实践的一些更广泛的建议。我们建议对概率预测进行专门的培训将促进概率预测在更广泛的应用范围内的使用。一个案例研究的结果表明，专家们在如何显示概率预测以及他们认为应该伴随图表的基本信息方面没有总体的一致意见。在本文中，我们提出了一个最小属性列表，如果与概率预测一致地显示这些属性，将使产品更容易理解。版权所有©2012 John Wiley & Sons， Ltd。
The aim of this article is to improve the communication of the probabilistic flood forecasts generated by hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) by understanding perceptions of different methods of visualizing probabilistic forecast information. This study focuses on interexpert communication and accounts for differences in visualization requirements based on the information content necessary for individual users. The perceptions of the expert group addressed in this study are important because they are the designers and primary users of existing HEPS. Nevertheless, they have sometimes resisted the release of uncertainty information to the general public because of doubts about whether it can be successfully communicated in ways that would be readily understood to nonexperts. In this article, we explore the strengths and weaknesses of existing HEPS visualization methods and thereby formulate some wider recommendations about the best practice for HEPS visualization and communication. We suggest that specific training on probabilistic forecasting would foster use of probabilistic forecasts with a wider range of applications. The result of a case study exercise showed that there is no overarching agreement between experts on how to display probabilistic forecasts and what they consider the essential information that should accompany plots and diagrams. In this article, we propose a list of minimum properties that, if consistently displayed with probabilistic forecasts, would make the products more easily understandable. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.