Modeling the impact of a partially effective HIV vaccine on HIV infection and death among women and infants in South Africa
Modeling the impact of a partially effective HIV vaccine on HIV infection and death among women and infants in South Africa
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DOI：
10.1097/01.qai.0000230526.79341.83
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发表时间：
2006-10-01
影响因子：
3.6
通讯作者：
Karim, Salim S. Abdool
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Amirfar, Sam;Hollenberg, James P.;Karim, Salim S. Abdool
目的：评估在南非15岁少女队列中部分有效的艾滋病毒疫苗在10年内对母婴预防艾滋病毒感染和死亡的潜在影响。方法：对南非所有15岁少女进行了10年的计算机模拟。在这一人群中接种了一种部分有效的疫苗，能够降低青少年的艾滋病毒发病率，并通过分娩和母乳喂养将其垂直传播给婴儿。在这10年期间结束时，分析了青少年和婴儿中预防的艾滋病毒感染和死亡人数。结果：在艾滋病毒感染率为5%的情况下，接种50%的有效疫苗，10年内青少年艾滋病毒病例数减少57,653例（28.7%），婴儿病例数减少13,765例（28.9%）。此外，假设每剂疫苗的成本为20美元，该疫苗接种计划可以在10年内为南非政府节省约1.2亿美元。结论：无论其他公共政策实施情况如何，部分有效的艾滋病毒疫苗在南非青少年和婴儿的艾滋病毒预防中发挥了重要作用。
Objective: To assess the potential impact over 10 years of a partially effective HIV vaccine in a cohort of 15-year-old adolescent girls in South Africa in terms of HIV infections and deaths prevented in mothers and infants.Methods: A computer simulation was constructed using a population of all 15-year-old adolescent girls in South Africa followed for 10 years. A partially effective vaccine is introduced into this population with the ability to reduce the HIV incidence rates of the adolescents and vertical transmission to their infants through birth and breast-feeding. At the end of this 10 year period, the number of HIV infections and death prevented in adolescents and infants is analyzed.Results: Using a 5% HIV incidence rate, a 50% effective vaccine decreases the number of HIV cases among adolescents by 57,653 (28.7%) and the number of cases among infants by 13,765 (28.9%) over 10 years. In addition, assuming a vaccine cost of $20 per dose, the vaccination program can save approximately $120 million for the South African government over 10 years.Conclusion: A partially effective HIV vaccine has an important role in HIV prevention in adolescents and infants in South Africa irrespective of other public policy implementations.