Plunge and rebound of a taxi market through COVID-19 lockdown: Lessons learned from Shenzhen, China
Plunge and rebound of a taxi market through COVID-19 lockdown: Lessons learned from Shenzhen, China
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COVID-19 封锁期间出租车市场的暴跌和反弹：中国深圳的经验教训
DOI：
10.1016/j.tra.2021.06.012
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发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Nie, Yu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Zheng, Hongyu;Zhang, Kenan;Nie, Yu
本文追溯了中国深圳出租车市场在新冠肺炎疫情封锁期间的暴跌和反弹。2020年第一季度收集了为期四周的出租车GPS轨迹数据集，涵盖了该市的封锁和分阶段重新开放期间。我们利用这些数据对出租车需求进行时空分析，然后选择在分析期间继续运营的出租车，研究它们是否以及如何调整运营策略。我们发现，除其他外：(i)深圳的出租车需求在封锁阶段萎缩了85%以上，即使在城市开始重新开放后，也几乎没有从底部恢复；（ii）的士的回收量远远落后于市区整体车辆的回收量；（三）大多数出租车因封城而大幅缩短工时，许多出租车在封城后调整了工作时间表，专注于服务高峰时段需求；（四）出租车司机表现出对大流行的独特行为适应，可通过聚类分析加以识别；（五）出租车服务虽然在疫情初期急剧下降，但由于政府的激励政策，出租车服务水平迅速回升，超过了疫情前的水平。这些实证研究结果表明：(1)旨在提高供给的激励措施应更精确地针对最需要提高供给的地方；（ii）密切监察的士市场情况，以支持和调整政策；（三）在封锁令严重抑制需求或市场供过于求的情况下，鼓励和帮助出租车司机采取更加集中的调度方式。
This paper traces the plunge and rebound of the taxi market in Shenzhen, China through the COVID-19 lockdown. A four-week taxi GPS trajectory data set is collected in the first quarter of 2020, which covers the period of lockdown and phased reopening in the city. We conduct a spatiotemporal analysis of taxi demand using the data, and then select taxis that continued to operate through the analysis period to examine whether and how they adjusted operational strategies. We find, among other things: (i) the taxi demand in Shenzhen shrank more than 85% in the lockdown phase and barely recovered from that bottom even after the city began to reopen; (ii) the recovery of taxi travel fell far behind that of the overall vehicle travel in the city; (iii) most taxis significantly cut back work hours in response to the lockdown, and many adjusted work schedule to focus on serving peak-time demand after it was lifted; (iv) taxi drivers demonstrate distinct behavioral adaptations to the pandemic that can be identified by a clustering analysis; and (v) while the level of taxi service dropped precipitately at the beginning, it quickly rebounded to exceed the pre-pandemic level, thanks to the government’s incentive policy. These empirical findings suggest (i) incentives aiming at boosting supply should more precisely target where the boost is most needed; (ii) the taxi market conditions should be closely monitored to support and adjust policies; and (iii) when the demand is severely depressed by lockdown orders or when the market is oversupplied, taxi drivers should be encouraged and aided to use more centralized dispatching modes.