Superexponential long-term trends in information technology
Superexponential long-term trends in information technology
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DOI：
10.1016/j.techfore.2011.07.006
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发表时间：
2011-10-01
影响因子：
12
通讯作者：
Gonzales, John Paul
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Nagy, Bela;Farmer, J. Doyne;Gonzales, John Paul
摩尔定律创造了一个流行的看法，即信息技术的指数级进步。但是，IT的发展真的是指数级的吗？在本文中，我们研究了[1]收集的记录信息技术进展的长时间序列数据。我们分析了几种技术的六种不同的历史发展趋势，分为以下三个功能任务：信息存储，信息传输（带宽）和信息转换（计算速度）。六个数据集中有五个可以追溯到世纪。我们进行统计分析，并表明，在所有六种情况下，可以拒绝指数假设在统计上显着的水平。相反，人们不能拒绝的超指数增长的假设，减少倍增时间。这就提出了过去改进信息技术的趋势是否可持续的问题。(C)2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Moore's Law has created a popular perception of exponential progress in information technology. But is the progress of IT really exponential? In this paper we examine long time series of data documenting progress in information technology gathered by [1]. We analyze six different historical trends of progress for several technologies grouped into the following three functional tasks: information storage, information transportation (bandwidth), and information transformation (speed of computation). Five of the six datasets extend back to the nineteenth century. We perform statistical analyses and show that in all six cases one can reject the exponential hypothesis at statistically significant levels. In contrast, one cannot reject the hypothesis of superexponential growth with decreasing doubling times. This raises questions about whether past trends in the improvement of information technology are sustainable. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.