Characteristics of a Convective-Scale Weather Forecasting System for the European Arctic
Characteristics of a Convective-Scale Weather Forecasting System for the European Arctic
复制标题
欧洲北极对流规模天气预报系统的特征
DOI：
10.1175/mwr-d-17-0194.1
复制
发表时间：
2017
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
A. Korosov
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Malte Müller;Yurii Batrak;J. Kristiansen;M. Køltzow;G. Noer;A. Korosov
摘要：在这项研究中，通过使用地面和无线电探空仪对风和温度的观测，将欧洲北极对流规模大气预报系统（AROME-Arctic）的一年数据集与 ECMWF 的中期预报、集合预报和再分析系统进行了比较。重点是模型系统在极短期预测范围（6-15 小时）内的特征，但没有具体关注提前期依赖性。一般来说，AROME-Arctic 为地表特征的表示增加了价值。在稳定条件下，全球模型中的大气边界层厚度被高估，这可能是由于湍流方案过于扩散所致。相反，与无线电探空仪观测结果相比，AROME-Arctic 显示了真实的平均厚度。所有模型在高空验证方面的表现都相似，令人惊讶的是，在短期预报中预测极地低气压的位置方面也是如此。然而，与最大风速相比……
AbstractIn this study a 1-yr dataset of a convective-scale atmospheric prediction system of the European Arctic (AROME-Arctic) is compared with the ECMWF’s medium-range forecasting, ensemble forecasting, and reanalysis systems, by using surface and radiosonde observations of wind and temperature. The focus is on the characteristics of the model systems in the very short-term forecast range (6–15 h), but without a specific focus on lead-time dependencies. In general, AROME-Arctic adds value to the representation of the surface characteristics. The atmospheric boundary layer thickness, during stable conditions, is overestimated in the global models, presumably because of a too diffusive turbulence scheme. Instead, AROME-Arctic shows a realistic mean thickness compared to the radiosonde observations. All models behave similarly for the upper-air verification and surprisingly, as well, in forecasting the location of a polar low in the short-range forecasts. However, when comparing with the largest wind speeds...