A normative model to estimate the number of persons not social distancing in a 3D complex built space
A normative model to estimate the number of persons not social distancing in a 3D complex built space
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DOI：
10.1080/13658816.2021.1938076
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发表时间：
2021-06
影响因子：
5.7
通讯作者：
Hiroyuki Usui;Yasushi Asami;Ikuho Yamada
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Hiroyuki Usui;Yasushi Asami;Ikuho Yamada
摘要在COVID-19大流行期间，与他人保持两米的物理距离（称为社交距离）是限制个人之间社交接触量的关键行动。因此，控制空间内的人数是限制社会接触和确保人与人之间物理距离的一种手段。除了个人位置的隐私问题之外，海拔信息的缺乏可能导致水平接近但垂直分开超过社交距离的人的误报情况。因此，我们开发了一个物理距离的统计分布的规范模型，以估计在三维复杂的建筑空间中没有社交距离的人的数量，从当前的空间中的人数（即人口密度），以小时为基础。我们在日本13个都道府县的中央车站周围地区进行了实证案例研究。为了确定这些地区不保持社交距离的人数，拟议的模型使用了国家紧急状态宣布之前的人数，宣布之后的人数与之前的人数之比以及这些地区土地使用法规规定的建筑面积比率等公开数据。
ABSTRACT In the COVID-19 pandemic, keeping a two-metre physical distance (called social distancing) from others is a critical action to limit the amount of social contact among individuals. Thus, regulating the number of persons in a space is one means to limit social contact and ensure physical distancing among people. In addition to the privacy concerns of individuals’ locations, the lack of elevation information can result in false positive cases for people who are horizontally close but vertically apart beyond the social distance. Therefore, we develop a normative model of the statistical distribution of physical distances to estimate the number of persons not social distancing in a three-dimensional complex built space from the current number of persons in the space (i.e. population density) present on an hourly basis. We conduct an empirical case study in the districts around the central stations of 13 of Japan’s prefectures. To determine the number of people not social distancing in these districts, the proposed model uses open data such as the number of persons before the national emergency declaration, the ratio of the number of persons after the declaration to that before, and the floor area ratio specified by land use regulations in these districts.