Dynamics of government spending cyclicality
Dynamics of government spending cyclicality
复制标题
政府支出周期性动态
DOI：
10.1016/j.econmod.2020.04.010
复制
发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
J. Jalles
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. Jalles
政府支出政策具有重要的宏观经济稳定作用。我们经验上重新审视财政周期性措施的计算，采用一种新的时变方法，同时明确地处理内生问题。本文分析了1970年至2015年36个发达经济体的样本，重点是预算及其组成部分的支出方面。政府支出的平均周期性为-0.9，表明样本具有反周期性。然而，存在相当大的跨国异质性：在不到50%的样本中，周期性系数为负且具有统计学意义。我们还发现，政府支出在1970年至1990年代中期之间变得越来越反周期。有几个因素决定了支出的周期性程度。较发达的经济体（贸易开放程度较高）往往具有较小（较高）程度的支出顺周期性。拥有更大政府和更好机构的国家能够提供更多的财政稳定。
Government spending policy has an important macroeconomic stabilization role. We empirically revisit the computation of fiscal cyclicality measures by employing a novel time-varying approach while explicitly dealing with endogeneity concerns. Analyzing a sample of 36 advanced economies from 1970 to 2015, the focus of the paper is on the spending side of the budget and its components. The average government spending cyclicality is −0.9, pointing to sample counter-cyclicality. However, there is considerable cross-country heterogeneity: in less than 50 percent of the sample, cyclicality coefficients are negative and statistically significant. We also uncover that government spending has become increasingly more countercyclical between 1970 and mid-1990s. Several factors drive the degree of spending cyclicality. More developed economies (more open to trade) tend to have a smaller (higher) degree of spending procyclicality. Countries with larger governments and those with better institutions are able to provide more fiscal stabilization.