Emergence of an equatorial mode of climate variability in the Indian Ocean
Emergence of an equatorial mode of climate variability in the Indian Ocean
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DOI：
10.1126/sciadv.aay7684
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发表时间：
2020-05-01
期刊：
影响因子：
13.6
通讯作者：
Tierney, Jessica E.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
DiNezio, Pedro N.;Puy, Martin;Tierney, Jessica E.
目前，印度洋（IO）的气候状态阻止了强烈的年度气候变化。这可能会在温室效应下发生变化，但其机制仍然不确定，从而限制了我们预测未来极端气候变化的能力。使用气候模型模拟，我们发现了一种气候变率模式的出现，能够在IO产生前所未有的海平面温度和降雨量波动。这种模式，这是抑制在当今的条件下，成为活跃的气候状态，浅温跃层和强烈的上升流，与持续的温室效应变暖的预测一致。这些预测支持的建模和代理证据的活跃模式在冰期有利于这样一个国家。由于其对水文变化的影响，这种模式的出现将成为人口稠密的IO边缘的气候相关风险的一阶来源。
Presently, the Indian Ocean (IO) resides in a climate state that prevents strong year-to-year climate variations. This may change under greenhouse warming, but the mechanisms remain uncertain, thus limiting our ability to predict future changes in climate extremes. Using climate model simulations, we uncover the emergence of a mode of climate variability capable of generating unprecedented sea surface temperature and rainfall fluctuations across the IO. This mode, which is inhibited under present-day conditions, becomes active in climate states with a shallow thermocline and vigorous upwelling, consistent with the predictions of continued greenhouse warming. These predictions are supported by modeling and proxy evidence of an active mode during glacial intervals that favored such a state. Because of its impact on hydrological variability, the emergence of such a mode would become a first-order source of climate-related risks for the densely populated IO rim.