Quantitative earthquake forecasts resulting from static stress triggering
Quantitative earthquake forecasts resulting from static stress triggering
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DOI：
10.1029/2010jb007473
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发表时间：
2010-11
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
S. Hainzl;G. Brietzke;G. Zöller
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. Hainzl;G. Brietzke;G. Zöller
近年来，关于地震触发的讨论在潜在的机制和评估地震危害的能力方面一直存在争议。除了静态应力相互作用外，包括动态应力传递在内的其他机制也被认为是复杂触发过程的一部分。利用长期地震率和应力率之间的理论关系，我们证明了由地震破裂引起的静态应力变化使我们能够定量预测余震活动，而无需调整特定的模型参数。这些预测与余震的所有一阶特征，特别是(1)总数，(2)幂律距离衰减，(3)生产力与主震震级的标度，(4)前震概率，(5)提供最大余震震级的经验巴斯定律非常吻合，这支持了静态应力传递是地震触发的主要机制的结论。
[1] In recent years, the triggering of earthquakes has been discussed controversially with respect to the underlying mechanisms and the capability to evaluate the resulting seismic hazard. Apart from static stress interactions, other mechanisms including dynamic stress transfer have been proposed to be part of a complex triggering process. Exploiting the theoretical relation between long-term earthquake rates and stressing rate, we demonstrate that static stress changes resulting from an earthquake rupture allow us to predict quantitatively the aftershock activity without tuning specific model parameters. These forecasts are found to be in excellent agreement with all first-order characteristics of aftershocks, in particular, (1) the total number, (2) the power law distance decay, (3) the scaling of the productivity with the main shock magnitude, (4) the foreshock probability, and (5) the empirical Bath law providing the maximum aftershock magnitude, which supports the conclusion that static stress transfer is the major mechanism of earthquake triggering.