Interactions of landscape disturbances and climate change dictate ecological pattern and process: spatial modeling of wildfire, insect, and disease dynamics under future climates
Interactions of landscape disturbances and climate change dictate ecological pattern and process: spatial modeling of wildfire, insect, and disease dynamics under future climates
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DOI：
10.1007/s10980-016-0414-6
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发表时间：
2017-07
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
R. Loehman;R. Keane;Lisa M. Holsinger;Zhiwei Wu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
R. Loehman;R. Keane;Lisa M. Holsinger;Zhiwei Wu
干扰、气候和植被之间的相互作用影响景观格局和生态系统过程。气候变化，外来入侵，甲虫爆发，改变火灾制度，和人类活动可能会相互作用，以产生景观的出现和功能超越历史的类似物。目的我们使用的机制生态系统火灾过程模型FireBGCv 2模拟野火，山松甲虫的相互作用（美国松大小蠹）和白松疱锈病（Cronartium ribicola）在当前和未来气候下，在三个不同的研究领域。方法我们评估了树木断面积的变化，作为衡量景观响应超过300-年的模拟期为冠的大陆在蒙大拿州中北部，东叉的Bitterroot河在蒙大拿州西部，黄石中央高原在西部怀俄明州，美国。ResultsInteracting干扰减少了整体断面积通过增加树木死亡率的宿主物种。野火减少断面积比甲虫或锈病，干扰的相互作用下模拟未来的气候显着改变景观断面积相比，无干扰和当前的气候情景。不同景观之间的响应取决于物种组成，对火灾的敏感性，病原体和甲虫的适用性和susceptibility.ConclusionsUnderstanding干扰的相互作用是至关重要的管理景观，因为森林野火，病原体和甲虫的攻击可能会抵消或加剧气候的影响，野生动物，碳和生物多样性的后果。
ContextInteractions among disturbances, climate, and vegetation influence landscape patterns and ecosystem processes. Climate changes, exotic invasions, beetle outbreaks, altered fire regimes, and human activities may interact to produce landscapes that appear and function beyond historical analogs.ObjectivesWe used the mechanistic ecosystem-fire process model FireBGCv2 to model interactions of wildland fire, mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae), and white pine blister rust (Cronartium ribicola) under current and future climates, across three diverse study areas.MethodsWe assessed changes in tree basal area as a measure of landscape response over a 300-year simulation period for the Crown of the Continent in north-central Montana, East Fork of the Bitterroot River in western Montana, and Yellowstone Central Plateau in western Wyoming, USA.ResultsInteracting disturbances reduced overall basal area via increased tree mortality of host species. Wildfire decreased basal area more than beetles or rust, and disturbance interactions modeled under future climate significantly altered landscape basal area as compared with no-disturbance and current climate scenarios. Responses varied among landscapes depending on species composition, sensitivity to fire, and pathogen and beetle suitability and susceptibility.ConclusionsUnderstanding disturbance interactions is critical for managing landscapes because forest responses to wildfires, pathogens, and beetle attacks may offset or exacerbate climate influences, with consequences for wildlife, carbon, and biodiversity.