Impacts of Land Use Changes on Net Primary Productivity in Urban Agglomerations under Multi-Scenarios Simulation
Impacts of Land Use Changes on Net Primary Productivity in Urban Agglomerations under Multi-Scenarios Simulation
复制标题
多情景模拟下城市群土地利用变化对净初级生产力的影响
DOI：
10.3390/rs14071755
复制
发表时间：
2022-04-01
期刊：
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Xu, Jiangqi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chen, Yuhan;Wang, Jia;Xu, Jiangqi
土地利用与生态发展的可持续性密切相关。本文采用斑块生成土地利用模拟（PLUS）模型来进行城市群的多场景模拟。此外，采用Theil-Sen中位数趋势分析、R/S分析、Getis-Ord Gi*指数、一元线性回归等数学分析方法，研究2000—2020年城市群土地利用变化对NPP的影响的净初级生产力（NPP）时空演变特征，并预测NPP的未来趋势。结果表明，基线情景和生态保护情景下城市扩张较为明显。在耕地保护情景下，城市扩张与2035年政府土地利用规划一致。北京NPP由西北向东南逐渐下降。热点地区集中在西北山区森林茂密地区。冷点区域主要集中在城区外围和水域。森林和其他受保护地区的核电厂数量将继续增加，不透水地表的核电厂数量将保持稳定。北京的核电厂表现出强劲的改善趋势，并且随着政府正确的生态管理和城市规划，这种趋势将持续下去。研究城市群土地利用和未来植被NPP发展趋势，可以帮助政策制定者合理管理未来土地利用动态，维护城市区域生态系统的可持续发展。
Land use is closely related to the sustainability of ecological development. This paper employed a patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model for the multi-scenario simulation of urban agglomerations. In addition, mathematical analysis methods such as Theil-Sen Median trend analysis, R/S analysis, Getis-Ord Gi* index and unary linear regression were used to study the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of net primary productivity (NPP) for the impact of land use changes on NPP in urban agglomerations from 2000 to 2020 and to forecast the future trend of NPP. The results indicate that urban expansion is obvious in the baseline scenario and in the ecological protection scenario. In the scenario of cropland protection, the urban expansion is consistent with the land use plan of the government for 2035. The NPP in Beijing decreased gradually from northwest to southeast. The hot spot areas are concentrated in the densely forested areas in the mountainous areas of northwest. The cold spot areas are mainly concentrated in the periphery of urban areas and water areas. The NPP will continue to increase in forest and other areas under protection and remain stable in impervious surfaces. The NPP of Beijing showed a strong improvement trend and this trend will continue with the right ecological management and urban planning of the government. The study of land use in urban agglomeration and the development trend of vegetation NPP in the future can help policymakers rationally manage future land use dynamics and maintain the sustainable development of urban regional ecosystems.