Temperature and Precipitation Effects on Wheat Yield Across a European Transect: a Crop Model Ensemble Analysis Using Impact Response Surfaces
Temperature and Precipitation Effects on Wheat Yield Across a European Transect: a Crop Model Ensemble Analysis Using Impact Response Surfaces
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DOI：
10.3354/cr01322
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发表时间：
2015-09
期刊：
影响因子：
1.1
通讯作者：
Nina Pirttioja;T. Carter;S. Fronzek;M. Bindi;H. Hoffmann;T. Palosuo;M. Ruíz-Ramos;F. Tao;M. Trnka;M. Acutis;A. Ruane
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Nina Pirttioja;T. Carter;S. Fronzek;M. Bindi;H. Hoffmann;T. Palosuo;M. Ruíz-Ramos;F. Tao;M. Trnka;M. Acutis;A. Ruane
本研究探讨了影响响应面（IRS）方法在大范围气候变化下研究模型整体作物产量响应的效用。春小麦和冬小麦小麦产量的 IRS 是根据芬兰、德国和西班牙跨纬度样带的基于过程的作物模拟模型的 26 个成员集合构建的。模型产量对温度（-2 至 +9°C）和降水（-50 至 +50%）系统增量变化的敏感性通过修改每日天气基准值（1981 至 2010 年）进行测试，二氧化碳浓度固定在 360 ppm。 IRS 方法提供了一种描述气候变化下模型行为的有效方法，以及分析、比较和呈现多模型集合模拟结果的优势。尽管个别模型的行为有时会明显偏离平均值，但不同地点和作物品种的总体中值响应表明，产量随着气温升高和降水减少而下降，并随着降水增加而增加。在 IRS 定义的不确定性范围内，芬兰站点的产量对温度变化比降水变化更敏感，而德国和西班牙站点的敏感性则不同。温度变化较大时，降水效应减弱。虽然分析的双变量和多模型特征对解释施加了一些限制，但 IRS 方法仍然提供了关于模型间和年际变异敏感性的额外见解。总而言之，这些敏感性可能有助于查明热应激、春化或干旱效应等过程，需要在未来模型开发中进行改进。
This study explored the utility of the impact response surface (IRS) approach for investigating model ensemble crop yield responses under a large range of changes in climate. IRSs of spring and winter wheat Triticum aestivum yields were constructed from a 26-member ensemble of process-based crop simulation models for sites in Finland, Germany and Spain across a latitudinal transect. The sensitivity of modelled yield to systematic increments of changes in temperature (-2 to +9°C) and precipitation (-50 to +50%) was tested by modifying values of baseline (1981 to 2010) daily weather, with CO2 concentration fixed at 360 ppm. The IRS approach offers an effective method of portraying model behaviour under changing climate as well as advantages for analysing, comparing and presenting results from multi-model ensemble simulations. Though individual model behaviour occasionally departed markedly from the average, ensemble median responses across sites and crop varieties indicated that yields decline with higher temperatures and decreased precipitation and increase with higher precipitation. Across the uncertainty ranges defined for the IRSs, yields were more sensitive to temperature than precipitation changes at the Finnish site while sensitivities were mixed at the German and Spanish sites. Precipitation effects diminished under higher temperature changes. While the bivariate and multi-model characteristics of the analysis impose some limits to interpretation, the IRS approach nonetheless provides additional insights into sensitivities to inter-model and inter-annual variability. Taken together, these sensitivities may help to pinpoint processes such as heat stress, vernalisation or drought effects requiring refinement in future model development.