Increased incidence of Lyme borreliosis in southern Sweden following mild winters and during warm, humid summers
Increased incidence of Lyme borreliosis in southern Sweden following mild winters and during warm, humid summers
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DOI：
10.1007/s10096-006-0167-2
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发表时间：
2006-07-01
影响因子：
4.5
通讯作者：
Berglund, J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bennet, L.;Halling, A.;Berglund, J.
本研究的目的是调查莱姆病的长期发病率，此外，以确定是否存在相关性之间的气候因素和夏季莱姆病的发病率变化。气候变化直接影响蜱虫种群动态，间接影响人类对莱姆病螺旋体的暴露。在瑞典东南部的初级保健诊所进行的这项研究中，检索了1997-2003年的电子病历，以寻找符合游走性红斑标准的病例。采用多水平Poisson回归模型，研究了各种气候因素对夏季游走性红斑发病率变化的影响。年平均发病率为每10万居民464例游走性红斑。女性的发病率明显高于男性，分别为每10万居民505例和423例（p < 0.001）。游走性红斑发病率的夏季变化与夏季月平均气温相关（发病率比1.12; p < 0.001），冬季气温低于0 ℃的天数（发病率比0.97; P < 0.001），夏季月平均降水量（发病率比0.92; P < 0.05），夏季相对湿度大于86%的天数（发病率比1.04; P < 0.05）。总之，莱姆病在瑞典东南部是高度流行的。这一地区的气候不仅有利于人类蜱虫暴露，而且有利于大量寻找宿主的蜱虫，影响了莱姆病发病率的夏季变化。
The aim of the present study was to investigate the long-term incidence rate of Lyme borreliosis and, additionally, to determine whether a correlation exists between climatic factors and summer-season variations in the incidence of Lyme borreliosis. Climatic variability acts directly on tick population dynamics and indirectly on human exposure to Lyme borreliosis spirochetes. In this study, conducted in primary healthcare clinics in southeastern Sweden, electronic patient records from 1997-2003 were searched for those that fulfilled the criteria for erythema migrans. Using a multilevel Poisson regression model, the influence of various climatic factors on the summer-season variations in the incidence of erythema migrans were studied. The mean annual incidence rate was 464 cases of erythema migrans per 100,000 inhabitants. The incidence was significantly higher in women than in men, 505 and 423 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, respectively (p < 0.001). The summer-season variations in the erythema migrans incidence rate correlated with the monthly mean summer temperatures (incidence rate ratio 1.12; p < 0.001), the number of winter days with temperatures below 0 degrees C (incidence rate ratio 0.97; p < 0.001), the monthly mean summer precipitation (incidence rate ratio 0.92; p < 0.05), and the number of summer days with relative humidity above 86% (incidence rate ratio 1.04; p < 0.05). In conclusion, Lyme borreliosis is highly endemic in southeastern Sweden. The climate in this area, which is favourable not only for human tick exposure but also for the abundance of host-seeking ticks, influences the summer-season variations in the incidence of Lyme borreliosis.