Examining inclusive mobility through smartcard data: What shall we make of senior citizens' declining bus patronage in the West Midlands?
Examining inclusive mobility through smartcard data: What shall we make of senior citizens' declining bus patronage in the West Midlands?
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2019.102474
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发表时间：
2019-07-01
影响因子：
6.1
通讯作者：
Leak, Alistair
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kandt, Jens;Leak, Alistair
免费使用公共交通被视为实现包容性出行的有效手段，但最近西米德兰兹郡和英国其他地区有权享受免费旅行的乘客乘坐公交车的人数下降，这给交通研究和政策带来了一个难题。在这项研究中，我们分析了居住在西米德兰兹郡联合管理局的371,220名优惠乘客近六年来记录的旅行智能卡交易。使用序列分析，我们确定了代表不同时间寄宿概况的六个组。我们将这些剖面与地理空间数据联系起来，并通过空间模式检测和多项式Logit建模来表征它们。我们发现，首先，根据不同的活动模式，乘客量的下降在研究期间分三波出现；第二，以前经常(日常)乘客倾向于放弃巴士，因此对整体趋势的影响最大；第三，邻里环境下的撤客表明社会不利、少数族裔比例较高和汽车拥有率较低，换言之，社会排斥风险较高。为了部分地讨论这些自相矛盾的结果，我们确定了三个因果领域--社会、健康相关和结构--并总结出对促进以后生活中包容性和健康流动的政策的影响。
Free access to public transport is viewed as an effective means to enable inclusive mobility, but the recent decline in bus patronage by passengers entitled to free travel in the West Midlands and other UK regions presents a conundrum to transport research and policy. In this research, we analyse travel smartcard transactions recorded over nearly six years for 371,220 concessionary passengers resident in the West Midlands Combined Authority. Using sequence analysis, we identify six groups representing different temporal boarding profiles. We link these profiles to geo-spatial data and characterise them by means of spatial pattern detection and multinomial logit modelling. We find that, first, the decline in patronage occurs in three waves across the study period according to distinct activity patterns; second, formerly frequent (daily) passengers tend to abandon the bus and thus show the largest impact on the overall trend; third, the neighbourhood context of withdrawing passengers indicates social disadvantage, higher instance of ethnic minorities and lower car ownership rates, in other words higher risk of social exclusion. To discuss these in parts paradoxical results, we identify three causal domains social, health-related and structural - and conclude with implications for policy promoting inclusive and healthy mobility in later life.