Unmeasured Investment and the Puzzling U.S. Boom in the 1990s
Unmeasured Investment and the Puzzling U.S. Boom in the 1990s
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无法估量的投资和 20 世纪 90 年代美国令人费解的繁荣
DOI：
10.3386/w13499
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发表时间：
2007
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
E. Prescott
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Ellen R Mcgrattan;E. Prescott
基本的新古典增长模型很好地解释了20世纪90年代之前美国经济的战后周期性行为，前提是考虑到人口增长、折旧率、全要素生产率和税收的变化。对于20世纪90年代，该模型预测经济低迷，而实际上美国经济繁荣。我们通过引入无形投资和关于生产无形投资品的非中性技术变革来扩展基本模型，并发现根据这一新理论，20世纪90年代并不令人困惑。有令人信服的微观和宏观证据支持我们的扩展，该理论的预测与美国的国民生产总值、收入和资本利得一致。我们利用这一理论对现行的劳动生产率和投资会计计量方法与具有无形投资的模型经济的相应计量方法进行了比较。我们的发现表明，标准会计指标大大低估了生产率和投资的繁荣。
The basic neoclassical growth model accounts well for the postwar cyclical behavior of the U.S. economy prior to the 1990s, provided that variations in population growth, depreciation rates, total factor productivity, and taxes are incorporated. For the 1990s, the model predicts a depressed economy, when in fact the U.S. economy boomed. We extend the base model by introducing intangible investment and non-neutral technology change with respect to producing intangible investment goods and find that the 1990s are not puzzling in light of this new theory. There is compelling micro and macro evidence for our extension, and the predictions of the theory are in conformity with U.S. national products, incomes, and capital gains. We use the theory to compare current accounting measures for labor productivity and investment with the corresponding measures for the model economy with intangible investment. Our findings show that standard accounting measures greatly understate the boom in productivity and investment.