Estimation of COVID-19 dynamics "on a back-of-envelope?: Does the simplest SIR model provide quantitative parameters and predictions?
Estimation of COVID-19 dynamics "on a back-of-envelope?: Does the simplest SIR model provide quantitative parameters and predictions?
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DOI：
10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109841
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发表时间：
2020-06-01
影响因子：
7.8
通讯作者：
Postnikov, Eugene B.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Postnikov, Eugene B.
基于三区室（易感感染-恢复/移除）模型存在数学顺序化简到由流行过程基本特征确定参数的Verhulst （logistic）方程，将该模型应用于欧洲疾病预防控制中心最近报告的COVID-19暴发数据进行了检验。结果表明，这样一个简单的模型不仅在质量上充分再现了流行病动态，而且在数量上也充分再现了若干国家的流行病动态，具有高度的相关性，可以用于预测估计。此外，本文还讨论了SIR模型的一些特征，它的参数和条件如何反映为预防疾病生长所尝试的措施，这也从模型解的偏差中清楚地表明。(C) 2020 Elsevier Ltd.版权所有。
Basing on existence of the mathematically sequential reduction of the three-compartmental (Susceptible Infected-Recovered/Removed) model to the Verhulst (logistic) equation with the parameters determined by the basic characteristic of epidemic process, this model is tested in application to the recent data on COVID-19 outbreak reported by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. It is shown that such a simple model adequately reproduces the epidemic dynamics not only qualitatively but for a number of countries quantitatively with a high degree of correlation that allows to use it for predictive estimations. In addition, some features of SIR model are discussed in the context, how its parameters and conditions reflect measures attempted for the disease growth prevention that is also clearly indicated by deviations from such model solutions. (C) 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.