Confidence in Risk Assessments
Confidence in Risk Assessments
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对风险评估的信心
DOI：
10.1111/rssa.12445
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发表时间：
2019
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Rougier J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Rougier J
风险以不同程度的置信度进行评估，置信度与风险管理者相关。该论文提出了一个表示信心的操作框架，该框架基于专家当前的信念以及她的信念在未来可能会有何不同。两种建模简化，“没有未知的未知数”和同质泊松过程，使该框架的应用变得微不足道。这是为了评估大型事件的超标概率，以火山风险为例。本文最后讨论了国家规模风险评估的风险和置信度评估，包括一些进一步的说明。
Risk is assessed with varying degrees of confidence, and the degree of confidence is relevant to the risk manager. The paper proposes an operational framework for representing confidence, based on an expert's current beliefs about how her beliefs might be different in the future. Two modelling simplifications, ‘no unknown unknowns’ and a homogeneous Poisson process, make this framework trivial to apply. This is illustrated for assessing an exceedance probability for a large event, with volcanic risk as a specific example. The paper ends with a discussion about risk and confidence assessments for national scale risk assessment, including several further illustrations.