Climate refugia for kelp within an ocean warming hotspot revealed by stacked species distribution modelling
Climate refugia for kelp within an ocean warming hotspot revealed by stacked species distribution modelling
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DOI：
10.1016/j.marenvres.2021.105267
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发表时间：
2021-02-16
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
Coleman, M. A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Davis, T. R.;Champion, C.;Coleman, M. A.
由于气候变化，全球形成冠层的大型藻类正在减少，为这些栖息地确定避难所对于保护它们至关重要。这在海洋变暖的热点地区尤其重要，在这些地区，海带的范围已经发生了显著的收缩，预计将继续下去。我们开发了一个堆叠海胆海带物种分布模型（SDM）预测气候避难所海带（Ecklonia radiata）在海洋变暖的热点，澳大利亚东南部。最佳堆叠SDM纳入生物和非生物的解释协变量，并使用一个独立的数据集进行验证。密度的海胆，夏季底温和光合有效辐射在海底海带覆盖显着的预测，突出的生理和生态的影响，这些变量对海带的分布。我们的最佳堆叠SDM预测三个空间上不同的避难区，海带发生在更深的沃茨比周围的海景。使用独立数据证实了其中两个避难区存在海带。确定这些避难区对保护至关重要，因为它们可能有助于具有生态和经济重要性的海带森林的持续存在，因为沃茨在浅水区变暖，海带在气候变化下向深处退缩。此外，确定避难所将使积极的空间规划，优先考虑新的保护地点，以确保关键的海带栖息地可以在未来的压力越来越大。
Canopy forming macroalgae are declining globally due to climate change and the identification of refuges for these habitats is crucial for their conservation. This is particularly pertinent in ocean warming hotspots where significant range contractions of kelp have occurred and are projected to continue. We developed a stacked urchin-kelp species distribution model (SDM) to predict climate refugia for kelp (Ecklonia radiata) in an ocean warming hotspot, south-eastern Australia. The optimal stacked-SDM incorporated biotic and abiotic explanatory covariates and was validated using an independent dataset. Density of the urchin Centrostephanus rodgersii, summer bottom temperature and photosynthetically available radiation at the seabed were significant predictors of kelp cover, highlighting the physiological and ecological influence of these variables on the distribution of kelp. Our optimal stacked-SDM predicted three spatially distinct refuge areas, where kelp occurs in deeper waters than surrounding seascapes. The presence of kelp at two of these refuge areas was confirmed using independent data. The identification of these refuge areas is crucial for conservation, as they are likely to facilitate the persistence of ecologically and economically important kelp forests as waters warm in shallow areas and kelp retreat to depth under climate change. Furthermore, identification of refugia will enable proactive spatial planning that prioritises new locations for protection to ensure that key kelp habitats can persist in a future of increasing stress.