Informal dissemination scenarios and the effectiveness of evacuation warning dissemination of households - A Simulation study
Informal dissemination scenarios and the effectiveness of evacuation warning dissemination of households - A Simulation study
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非正式传播情景和家庭疏散警报传播的有效性 - 模拟研究
DOI：
10.1016/j.proeng.2010.07.014
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发表时间：
2010
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Nagarajan M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Nagarajan M
在大规模紧急情况下及时向公众发出警报对于确保安全和拯救生命至关重要。本文提出了一个基于Agent的仿真模型，模拟了在考虑官方渠道和非官方渠道的情况下，预警信息在公众中的传播。该模型是在NetLogo软件中针对一个假设区域开发的，需要输入参数，如每个官方来源的有效性（%），估计开始通知其他人的时间，估计的通知其他人的时间和估计的百分比（谁不转发消息）。本文展示了一种方法，将公众作为信息提供者的行为因素纳入到大规模紧急事件警报传播有效性的评估中。该模型为从业人员提供了一个工具，以测试非正式渠道对总体预警时间和模型参数敏感性的潜在影响。该工具将有助于从业人员说服疏散人员传播警告信息，通知其他人，类似于红十字会开展的“奔向你的邻居"运动。
Timely warning of the public during large scale emergencies is essential to ensure safety and save lives. This ongoing study proposes an agent-based simulation model to simulate the warning message dissemination among the public considering both official channels and unofficial channels The proposed model was developed in NetLogo software for a hypothetical area, and requires input parameters such as effectiveness of each official source (%), estimated time to begin informing others, estimated time to inform others and estimated percentage of people (who do not relay the message). This paper demonstrates a means of factoring the behaviour of the public as informants into estimating the effectiveness of warning dissemination during large scale emergencies. The model provides a tool for the practitioner to test the potential impact of the informal channels on the overall warning time and sensitivity of the modelling parameters. The tool would help the practitioners to persuade evacuees to disseminate the warning message informing others similar to the ’Run to thy neighbour campaign conducted by the Red cross.