Three simple rules to ensure reasonably credible subgroup analyses.
Three simple rules to ensure reasonably credible subgroup analyses.
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DOI：
10.1136/bmj.h5651
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发表时间：
2015-11-04
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Hayward RA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Burke JF;Sussman JB;Kent DM;Hayward RA
亚组分析的局限性是显而易见的——多重比较导致的假阳性、功效不足导致的假阴性，以及由于患者具有同时变化的多种特征而影响个体治疗决策的能力有限。在本文中，我们应用贝叶斯规则来确定阳性亚组分析为真阳性的概率。从这个框架中，我们得出简单的规则来确定何时可以将亚组分析作为假设检验分析进行，从而告知亚组分析何时应影响我们的医学实践。
The limitations of subgroup analyses are well established—false positives due to multiple comparisons, false negatives due to inadequate power, and limited ability to inform individual treatment decisions because patients have multiple characteristics that vary simultaneously. In this article, we apply Bayes’s rule to determine the probability that a positive subgroup analysis is a true positive. From this framework, we derive simple rules to determine when subgroup analyses can be performed as hypothesis testing analyses and thus inform when subgroup analyses should influence how we practice medicine.