Evaluating replacement project of nuclear power plants under uncertainty
Evaluating replacement project of nuclear power plants under uncertainty
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DOI：
10.1016/j.enpol.2009.11.010
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发表时间：
2010-03
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Y. Naito;Ryuta Takashima;H. Kimura;H. Madarame
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Y. Naito;Ryuta Takashima;H. Kimura;H. Madarame
本文研究了在电力市场放松管制的情况下，核电站置换项目的价值评估问题。替代项目由两个部分组成：决定退役现有工厂和决定建造新工厂。在替代项目中，退役决策既要考虑现有电厂的盈利能力，也要考虑新建电厂的盈利能力和成本。采用实物期权理论确定了最佳的退役和建造时间。为了检验退役时间和决策时间的影响，我们考虑了这些决策时间的时滞。我们展示了替换项目价值对不确定性和时滞的依赖。
This paper investigates the valuation of a replacement project of nuclear power plants under the deregulated electricity market. The replacement project consists of two components: the decision to decommission an existing plant and the decision to construct a new plant. In the replacement project, the decommissioning decision should be made considering not only the profitability of the existing plant but also the profitability and costs of the construction of the new plant. Real options theory is used to determine the optimal timing of the decommissioning and construction. In order to examine the effect of decommissioning time and decision making one, we consider a time-lag for these decision making times. We show the dependence of the replacement project value on uncertainty and time-lag.