A Multiscale Exposure Model for Seismic Risk Assessment in Central Asia
A Multiscale Exposure Model for Seismic Risk Assessment in Central Asia
复制标题
中亚地震风险评估的多尺度暴露模型
DOI：
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
T. Abakanov
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Wieland;M. Pittore;S. Parolai;U. Begaliev;Pulat Yasunov;S. Tyagunov;B. Moldobekov;Saidislom Saidiy;I. Ilyasov;T. Abakanov
地震风险评估是结合危害、暴露和脆弱性模型进行的(联合国救灾组织，1979)。在这种情况下，暴露是指存在风险的因素，可以是建筑物、人口、生命线系统或社会经济活动。根据分析规模的不同，暴露数据可能会有所不同，从结构元素的特征和位置的详细描述到聚合到更大地理实体(如行政单位、城市或国家)的复合模型。当建筑类型或建筑高度等重要结构特征可用时，可以通过专家判断、分析模型或经验分析来评估结构的易损性，即物理易损性。Calvi等人对结构脆弱性评估的不同方法进行了详细的概述。(2006年)。经济合作与发展组织(经合组织)最近出版的《2012年全球自然灾害风险建模全球科学论坛报告》(经合组织，2012年)通过对世界各地风险评估做法的分析得出结论，暴露和脆弱性是有效风险评估的关键要素，并建议应作出更多努力，以确定和制定替代措施，以减少这些模型中的不确定性，并考虑其对时间的依赖性，以改进评估。此外，报告强调，常用的风险评估方法和数据在格式和质量上存在很大差异，因此很难在不同方法、分析规模或跨国界之间比较结果。
尽管它在风险评估中很重要，而且相对独立于潜在的危险类型，但关于暴露资产的可靠信息经常缺失、不完整、过时或高度聚集。发展中国家的情况尤其如此，在这些国家，常用的暴露数据采集程序往往不能充分应对城市的快速增长和城市地区日益严重的时空变异性。全球曝露数据库…
Seismic risk assessment is carried out combining hazard, exposure, and vulnerability models (United Nations Disaster Relief Organization [UNDRO], 1979). Exposure in this context refers to the elements at risk, which can be buildings, population, lifeline systems, or socioeconomic activities. Exposure data may vary depending on the scale of analysis, going from detailed descriptions of characteristics and locations of structural elements to composite models aggregated to larger geographical entities, such as administrative units, cities, or countries. When significant structural characteristics like the construction type or the building height are available, the vulnerability of structures here referred to as physical vulnerability, can be assessed by expert judgment, analytical modeling, or empirical analysis. A detailed overview of different methods for vulnerability assessment of structures is given in Calvi et al. (2006). The recently published Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Global Science Forum report on Global Modeling of Natural Hazard Risks 2012 (OECD, 2012) concludes, from the analysis of risk assessment practices worldwide, that exposure and vulnerability are critical elements for effective risk assessment and suggests that more efforts should be undertaken to identify and develop proxy measures to reduce uncertainties in these models and to consider their time dependency to improve assessments. Moreover, the report highlights that commonly used methods and data for risk assessments are strongly heterogeneous in format and quality, making it difficult to compare results between different methods, analysis scales, or across national borders.
Despite its importance in risk assessment and its relative independence on the underlying hazard type, reliable information on exposed assets is frequently missing, incomplete, out‐dated, or strongly aggregated. This is especially the case in developing countries where commonly used exposure data capturing procedures can often not adequately cope with the rapid urban growth and increasingly high spatiotemporal variability in urban areas. Global exposure databases …