Accuracy of physician prognosis in heart failure and lung cancer: Comparison between physician estimates and model predicted survival
Accuracy of physician prognosis in heart failure and lung cancer: Comparison between physician estimates and model predicted survival
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DOI：
10.1177/0269216315626048
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发表时间：
2016-07-01
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Kociol, Robb D.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Warraich, Haider Javed;Allen, Larry A.;Kociol, Robb D.
背景：对不良结果的预期可指导决策，但在心力衰竭方面可能极具挑战性。
目的：我们试图评估医生在预测心力衰竭预后方面的准确性和把握程度。
设计：横断面调查
参与者/环境：内科、心脏病学和肿瘤学的教员及学员对三名标准化患者的生存期进行了估计：（1）59岁的IV期肺癌患者；（2）79岁女性，有纽约心脏协会（NYHA）4级心力衰竭症状且射血分数保留；（3）40岁男性，有纽约心脏协会3级心力衰竭症状且射血分数降低至20%。生存期预测来自监测、流行病学和最终结果 - 医疗保险数据库以及西雅图心力衰竭模型。准确性定义为……
Background: Anticipating adverse outcomes guides decisions but can be particularly challenging in heart failure.Aim: We sought to assess the accuracy and comfort of physicians in predicting prognosis in heart failure.Design: Cross-sectional surveyParticipants/setting: Faculty and trainees in internal medicine, cardiology, and oncology estimated survival for three standardized patients: (1) 59-year-old patient with stage IV lung cancer; (2) 79-year-old woman with New York Heart Association class 4 heart failure symptoms and preserved ejection fraction; and (3) 40-year-old man with New York Heart Association class 3 heart failure symptoms and reduced ejection fraction of 20%. Survival predictions were derived from surveillance, epidemiology, and end results-Medicare database and the Seattle Heart Failure Model. Accuracy was defined as