Periodic High Risk as a Cause of Fertility Decline in a Changing Rural Environment: Survival Strategies in the 1980-1983 South Indian Drought
Periodic High Risk as a Cause of Fertility Decline in a Changing Rural Environment: Survival Strategies in the 1980-1983 South Indian Drought
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DOI：
10.1086/451554
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发表时间：
1986-07
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
J. Caldwell;P. H. Reddy;P. Caldwell
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. Caldwell;P. H. Reddy;P. Caldwell
在试图解释第三世界大部分地区持续的高生育率时，人们既关注童工的当前回报，又关注减轻或避免未来风险。后者可细分为在父母一辈仍处于工作年龄时应付紧急情况和在父母去世时提供养老或甚至保障家庭财产的传承。老年问题最近受到最多的注意，在许多社会中，这些问题可能是至关重要的。“然而，在我们自1979年以来在印度南部农村进行的一项研究计划中，人口行为的原因更多地强调需要制定应对周期性危机的战略，而不是确保老年人的支持。在研究地区，对绝大多数老年人来说，支持系统仍然运作良好。3相反，在我们对婚姻、生育控制和教育的调查中，我们一再发现，父母在这些领域做出决定的一个基本考虑是加强家庭抵御周期性危机的能力。干旱易发地区经常发生饥荒，
In the attempt to explain persistent high fertility in much of the Third World, attention has been drawn both to current returns from child labor and to the mitigation or avoidance of future risks. The latter can be subdivided into meeting emergencies while the parental generation is still of working age and providing for old age or even safeguarding the transmission of family property on parental death. The problems of old age have recently received most attention, and they may well be of paramount importance in many societies.' Yet, in a research program that we have conducted in rural south India since 1979, the reasons given for demographic behavior have more frequently emphasized the need to plan strategies to meet periodic crisis than to ensure old-age support.2 Nevertheless, one should not underemphasize the latter merely because the problem is predictable and the solutions understood. In the study area, for the great majority of the aged, the support system still worked well.3 In contrast, in our investigations of marriage, fertility control, and education, we repeatedly discovered that a fundamental consideration with regard to parental decisions in these areas was to strengthen the ability of the family to withstand periodic crises.4 By far the most important type of crisis in this dry, drought-prone area was recurrent famines resulting