FTT:Heat - A simulation model for technological change in the European residential heating sector
FTT:Heat - A simulation model for technological change in the European residential heating sector
复制标题
FTT:Heat - 欧洲住宅供暖行业技术变革的模拟模型
DOI：
10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112249
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发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Knobloch F
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Knobloch F
我们引入了一个新的自下而上的模型来模拟欧洲住宅供暖部门的未来技术变革，FTT：热。该模型模拟了到2050年所有成员国家庭对供暖技术的吸收和替代情况，并模拟了旨在增加低碳技术吸收的现实世界政策工具的潜在影响。它基于观察到的偏好和非线性扩散动力学，明确表示了家庭的技术选择。决策者被建模为个体家庭，受制于有限的信息和有限的理性。他们的决定反映了微观层面的行为因素和偏好，从宏观经济角度来看可能导致次优结果。为了演示，我们模拟了每个成员国实现欧盟2030年可再生供暖目标的政策组合。根据目前的扩散趋势，估计一些国家将继续向可再生供暖过渡，而其他国家几乎看不到任何脱碳。为了在2030年之前将可再生供暖的份额增加至少10个百分点，20个会员国需要出台额外的政策，其必要的严格程度因国而异。由于供暖系统的缓慢更新，由此导致的家庭成本增加可能会持续数十年。
We introduce a new bottom-up model for simulating Future Technology Transformations in the European residential heating sector, FTT:Heat. The model simulates the uptake and replacement of heating technologies by households in all individual Member States up to 2050, and allows to simulate the potential effect of real-world policy instruments aiming at an increased uptake of low-carbon technologies. It features an explicit representation of households' technology choices, based on observed preferences and non-linear diffusion dynamics. Decision-makers are modelled as individual households, which are subject to limited information and bounded rationality. Their decisions reflect behavioural factors and preferences at the micro level, and may result in sub-optimal outcomes from a macroeconomic perspective. For demonstration, we simulate policy mixes for reaching the EU's 2030 renewable heating targets in each Member State. Under current diffusion trends, some countries are estimated to continue an ongoing transition towards renewable heating, while others would hardly see any decarbonisation. For increasing the share of renewable heating by at least ten percentage points until 2030, 20 Member States need to introduce additional policies, the necessary stringency of which differs between countries. Due to the slow turnover of heating systems, resulting cost increases faced by households could persist over decades.