The first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in Africa: a cross-sectional study.
The first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in Africa: a cross-sectional study.
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DOI：
10.1016/s0140-6736(21)00632-2
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发表时间：
2021-04-03
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Nkengasong J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Salyer SJ;Maeda J;Sembuche S;Kebede Y;Tshangela A;Moussif M;Ihekweazu C;Mayet N;Abate E;Ouma AO;Nkengasong J
尽管第一波 COVID-19 大流行在非洲的进展速度比世界其他地区慢，但到 2020 年 12 月，第二波疫情似乎更具侵略性，病例数更多。截至目前，非盟所有55个成员国的疫情形势尚未得到全面审查。我们的目的是评估报告的 COVID-19 流行病学数据，以更好地了解非洲大流行的进展。我们在 2020 年 2 月 14 日至 12 月 31 日期间进行了横断面分析，利用非盟成员国报告的 COVID-19 流行病学、检测和缓解策略数据来评估趋势并确定国家、区域和大陆层面的应对和缓解工作。我们对感兴趣的变量进行了描述性分析，包括累积和每周发病率、病死率 (CFR)、每例检测比率、增长率以及现有的公共卫生和社会措施。截至 2020 年 12 月 31 日，非洲国家报告了 2 763 421 例 COVID-19 病例和 65 602 例死亡，占全球报告的 82 312 150 例病例的 3·4%，占全球报告的 1 798 994 例死亡的 3·6%。 55 个国家中的 9 个国家占报告病例数的 82·6% 以上 (2 283 613)。 18 个国家报告的病死率高于全球病死率 (2·2%)。 17 个国家报告的每例检测比率低于建议的每例 10 至 30 次检测比率范围。 2020 年 7 月，非洲第一波疫情高峰时，平均每日新增病例数为 18 273 例。截至 2020 年 12 月 31 日，40 个国家 (73%) 已经经历或正在经历第二波病例，非洲大陆报告流行病学第 53 周平均每日新增病例 23 790 例。50 个会员国中有 48 个 (96%) 采取了 5 个或以上严格控制措施截至 2020 年 4 月 15 日，公共卫生和社会措施已到位，但这一数字 尽管上个月病例有所增加，但截至 2020 年 12 月 31 日，病例已减少至 36 例（72%）。我们的分析表明，非洲大陆的第二波 COVID-19 大流行比第一波更为严重，并强调了随着时间的推移检查区域和国家层面的多个流行病学变量的重要性。这些针对具体国家和区域的成果为全大陆倡议的实施提供了信息，并支持物资和技术援助的公平分配。随着时间的推移对这些数据的监测和分析对于持续的态势感知至关重要，特别是在会员国试图在控制 COVID-19 传播与确保稳定的经济和生计之间取得平衡的情况下。没有任何。
Although the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic progressed more slowly in Africa than the rest of the world, by December, 2020, the second wave appeared to be much more aggressive with many more cases. To date, the pandemic situation in all 55 African Union (AU) Member States has not been comprehensively reviewed. We aimed to evaluate reported COVID-19 epidemiology data to better understand the pandemic's progression in Africa. We did a cross-sectional analysis between Feb 14 and Dec 31, 2020, using COVID-19 epidemiological, testing, and mitigation strategy data reported by AU Member States to assess trends and identify the response and mitigation efforts at the country, regional, and continent levels. We did descriptive analyses on the variables of interest including cumulative and weekly incidence rates, case fatality ratios (CFRs), tests per case ratios, growth rates, and public health and social measures in place. As of Dec 31, 2020, African countries had reported 2 763 421 COVID-19 cases and 65 602 deaths, accounting for 3·4% of the 82 312 150 cases and 3·6% of the 1 798 994 deaths reported globally. Nine of the 55 countries accounted for more than 82·6% (2 283 613) of reported cases. 18 countries reported CFRs greater than the global CFR (2·2%). 17 countries reported test per case ratios less than the recommended ten to 30 tests per case ratio range. At the peak of the first wave in Africa in July, 2020, the mean daily number of new cases was 18 273. As of Dec 31, 2020, 40 (73%) countries had experienced or were experiencing their second wave of cases with the continent reporting a mean of 23 790 daily new cases for epidemiological week 53. 48 (96%) of 50 Member States had five or more stringent public health and social measures in place by April 15, 2020, but this number had decreased to 36 (72%) as of Dec 31, 2020, despite an increase in cases in the preceding month. Our analysis showed that the African continent had a more severe second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic than the first, and highlights the importance of examining multiple epidemiological variables down to the regional and country levels over time. These country-specific and regional results informed the implementation of continent-wide initiatives and supported equitable distribution of supplies and technical assistance. Monitoring and analysis of these data over time are essential for continued situational awareness, especially as Member States attempt to balance controlling COVID-19 transmission with ensuring stable economies and livelihoods. None.