Association of extinction risk of saproxylic beetles with ecological degradation of forests in Europe
Association of extinction risk of saproxylic beetles with ecological degradation of forests in Europe
复制标题
腐木甲虫灭绝风险与欧洲森林生态退化的关联
DOI：
10.1111/cobi.12427
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发表时间：
2015
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
Jörg C Müller
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
S. Seibold;R. Brandl;J. Buse;T. Hothorn;J. Schmidl;S. Thorn;Jörg C Müller
为了减少未来的生物多样性损失并有效分配保护资金，必须确定大规模灭绝过程背后的主要驱动因素。一种很有前景的方法是将物种的红色名录状态与特定特征联系起来，这些特征将功能重要的分类群或行会的物种与它们所依赖的资源联系起来。这些特征可用于检测人为生态系统变化和保护工作对物种的影响，从而为保护提供实际建议。我们用排序分类响应的比例-赔率线性混合效应模型，将德国红色名录分类作为1025种腐木甲虫灭绝风险的序数指数进行建模。在这个模型中，我们用系统发育相关的随机截距估计了表征物种生物学、所需资源和分布的内在性状的固定效应。该模型还允许对未列入红色名录的物种的灭绝风险进行预测。我们的模型显示，低地和大型物种以及依赖大直径、阔叶树或开阔树冠的物种的灭绝风险更高。这些结果很好地反映了过去几个世纪以来由现代林业造成的欧洲森林生态退化，即天然阔叶林向茂密针叶林为主的森林转变，以及老树和枯木的流失。因此，在中欧和西欧所有类型的森林中，针对腐木甲虫的保护活动应集中在低地，而林分的生境管理应以增加大直径枯枝、阔叶树枯枝和阳光充足地区枯枝的数量为目标。
To reduce future loss of biodiversity and to allocate conservation funds effectively, the major drivers behind large‐scale extinction processes must be identified. A promising approach is to link the red‐list status of species and specific traits that connect species of functionally important taxa or guilds to resources they rely on. Such traits can be used to detect the influence of anthropogenic ecosystem changes and conservation efforts on species, which allows for practical recommendations for conservation. We modeled the German Red List categories as an ordinal index of extinction risk of 1025 saproxylic beetles with a proportional‐odds linear mixed‐effects model for ordered categorical responses. In this model, we estimated fixed effects for intrinsic traits characterizing species biology, required resources, and distribution with phylogenetically correlated random intercepts. The model also allowed predictions of extinction risk for species with no red‐list category. Our model revealed a higher extinction risk for lowland and large species as well as for species that rely on wood of large diameter, broad‐leaved trees, or open canopy. These results mirror well the ecological degradation of European forests over the last centuries caused by modern forestry, that is the conversion of natural broad‐leaved forests to dense conifer‐dominated forests and the loss of old growth and dead wood. Therefore, conservation activities aimed at saproxylic beetles in all types of forests in Central and Western Europe should focus on lowlands, and habitat management of forest stands should aim at increasing the amount of dead wood of large diameter, dead wood of broad‐leaved trees, and dead wood in sunny areas.