Distributive and Demand Cycles in the Us Economya Structuralist Goodwin Model
Distributive and Demand Cycles in the Us Economya Structuralist Goodwin Model
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美国经济的分配和需求周期结构主义古德温模型
DOI：
10.1111/j.1467-999x.2006.00250.x
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发表时间：
2006
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
L. Taylor
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Nelson H. Barbosa;L. Taylor
自1929年以来，美国经济中经常出现逆时针周期，涉及产能利用率u(水平轴)和劳动份额ψ(垂直轴)。在古德温的周期增长模型中，ψ可以解释为洛特卡-沃尔特拉捕食者变量，u可以解释为被捕食者。在相图中，围绕u=0时间表的动态响应于经济计量估计(1948-2002)显示的利润主导的有效需求。围绕=0曲线的分配动态显示出长期的利润挤压。在经济周期中，实际工资和劳动生产率以每季度0.57%的速度增长，保持了劳动力份额的大体稳定。在(u，ψ)平面上对周期进行建模，提供了对需求和分配动态的简明描述，这与卡莱基、斯坦德尔、古德温和许多后续作者的工作中嵌入的宏观经济学是一致的。
There are regular counterclockwise cycles involving capacity utilization u (horizontal axis) and the labor share ψ (vertical axis) in the US economy since 1929. As in Goodwin’s cyclical growth model, ψ can be interpreted as a Lotka–Volterra predator variable and u as prey. In a phase diagram, dynamics around the u=0 schedule respond to effective demand that econometric estimation (1948–2002) shows to be profit-led. Distributive dynamics around the =0 curve demonstrate a long-term profit squeeze. Across cycles, the real wage and labor productivity grow at 0.57 per cent per quarter, holding the labor share broadly stable. Modeling the cycle in the (u, ψ) plane provides a parsimonious description of demand and distributive dynamics, consistent with the macroeconomics embedded in the work of Kalecki, Steindl, Goodwin and many subsequent authors.