Focalism: a source of durability bias in affective forecasting.
Focalism: a source of durability bias in affective forecasting.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1037//0022-3514.78.5.821
复制
发表时间：
2000-05
影响因子：
7.6
通讯作者：
Timothy D. Wilson;T. Wheatley;J. M. Meyers;D. Gilbert;D. Axsom
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Timothy D. Wilson;T. Wheatley;J. M. Meyers;D. Gilbert;D. Axsom
持久性偏差，倾向于过度预测对未来事件的情感反应的持续时间，可能部分是由于焦点主义，即人们过于关注所讨论的事件，而对其他未来事件的后果关注不够。如果是这样的话，要求人们考虑未来的其他活动应该会减少持久性偏见。在研究1-3中，如果大学足球迷首先考虑他们将在未来的其他活动上花费多少时间，那么他们不太可能过度预测足球比赛的结果会影响他们的幸福感。研究4和5排除了其他解释，并找到了分心解释的证据，即思考未来事件的人会缓和他们的预测，因为他们相信这些事件会减少对焦点事件的思考。作者讨论了焦点主义对其他文献的影响，如计划谬误。
The durability bias, the tendency to overpredict the duration of affective reactions to future events, may be due in part to focalism, whereby people focus too much on the event in question and not enough on the consequences of other future events. If so, asking people to think about other future activities should reduce the durability bias. In Studies 1-3, college football fans were less likely to overpredict how long the outcome of a football game would influence their happiness if they first thought about how much time they would spend on other future activities. Studies 4 and 5 ruled out alternative explanations and found evidence for a distraction interpretation, that people who think about future events moderate their forecasts because they believe that these events will reduce thinking about the focal event. The authors discuss the implications of focalism for other literatures, such as the planning fallacy.