Option to survive or surrender: Carbon asset management and optimization in thermal power enterprises from China
Option to survive or surrender: Carbon asset management and optimization in thermal power enterprises from China
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.128006
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发表时间：
2021-06-26
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Sun, Huaping
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Liu, Yue;Tian, Lixin;Sun, Huaping
碳排放权补贴是一把双刃剑，一方面以减排为设计初衷，另一方面在实践中扼杀了许多欠发达的煤炭消费企业，尤其是火电行业的煤炭消费企业。这把剑的刀柄部分掌握在当局手中，这把剑的刀身是碳排放权的价格。火力发电厂应该如何在叶片上跳舞激励着这项研究。考虑碳排放权补贴价格波动的影响，建立了随机环境下的最优停止决策模型，并用几何布朗运动模拟了碳排放额度价格过程，研究了中国火电厂的运行情况。在最终利润最大化的总体目标下，最优停产时间表示停产或停产的时机，因此最优停产边界曲线隐含着企业生死存亡的边缘。运用该方法对中国几家具有代表性的火电厂的倒闭和生存的真实案例进行了分析，探讨了火电厂的行业生态环境，结果发现：1)面对新生的碳金融市场的压力，现有火电厂的生存环境变得更加严峻。2)生存环境的边界主要由提高碳排放利用率的技术改进来划定。基于相同的最优停止模型，用一个分界面绘制了该行业的前景，定义了不同盈利水平的火力发电厂的生存空间。这一发现为那些为生存而挣扎的企业和政策制定者制定更好的监管和必要的干预提供了基准，本文发展的方法论为企业生存分析提供了一种研究范式。
Carbon emission right allowance is a double-edged sword, one edge is to reduce emission as its original design intention, another edge has in practice slain many less developed coal-consuming enterprises, especially for those in thermal power industry. Partially governed on the hilt in hands of the authority, body of this sword is the prices of carbon emission right. How should the thermal power plants dance on the blade motivates this research. Considering the impact of price fluctuations of carbon emission right allowance, we investigate the operation of Chinese thermal power plant by modeling the decision-making with optimal stopping problem, which is established on the stochastic environment with carbon emission allowance price process simulated by geometric Brownian motion. Under the overall goal of maximizing the ultimate profitability, the optimal stopping indicates the timing of suspend or halt of production, hence the optimal stopping boundary curve implies the edge of life and death with regard to this enterprise. Applying this methodology, real cases of failure and survival of several Chinese representative thermal power plants were analyzed to explore the industry ecotope, which leads to the findings that: 1) The survival environment of existed thermal power plants becomes severer when facing more pressure from the newborn carbon-finance market. 2) Boundaries of survival environment is mainly drawn by the technical improvements for rising the utilization rate of carbon emission. Based on the same optimal stopping model, outlook of this industry is drawn with a demarcation surface defining the vivosphere of thermal power plants with different levels of profitability. This finding provides benchmarks for those enterprises struggling for survival and policy makers scheming better supervision and necessary intervene, and the methodology developed in this paper provides a research paradigm for enterprise survival analysis.