Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China
Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China
复制标题
社会和经济因素对2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）在中国传播的影响
DOI：
10.1007/s00148-020-00778-2
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发表时间：
2020-05-09
影响因子：
6.1
通讯作者：
Shi, Wei
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Qiu, Yun;Chen, Xi;Shi, Wei
这项研究模拟了2020年1月19日至2月29日期间中国新型冠状病毒的本地和跨城市传播。我们研究了各种社会经济中介因素的作用，包括鼓励当地社区保持社交距离的公共卫生措施。2周前的天气特征被用作因果推理的工具变量。1月下旬实施的严格检疫、城市封锁和当地公共卫生措施显著降低了病毒传播率。到2月中旬，病毒的传播得到了控制。与地理位置接近和经济条件相似等其他因素相比，从疫情来源地区流出的人口对目的地地区构成的风险更高。我们通过反事实分析量化了不同公共卫生措施在减少感染人数方面的效果。由于中国1月下旬采取的国家和省级公共卫生措施，可能避免了140多万例感染和56 000例死亡。
This study models local and cross-city transmissions of the novel coronavirus in China between January 19 and February 29, 2020. We examine the role of various socioeconomic mediating factors, including public health measures that encourage social distancing in local communities. Weather characteristics 2 weeks prior are used as instrumental variables for causal inference. Stringent quarantines, city lockdowns, and local public health measures imposed in late January significantly decreased the virus transmission rate. The virus spread was contained by the middle of February. Population outflow from the outbreak source region posed a higher risk to the destination regions than other factors, including geographic proximity and similarity in economic conditions. We quantify the effects of different public health measures in reducing the number of infections through counterfactual analyses. Over 1.4 million infections and 56,000 deaths may have been avoided as a result of the national and provincial public health measures imposed in late January in China.