Port disruptions due to natural disasters: Insights into port and logistics resilience
Port disruptions due to natural disasters: Insights into port and logistics resilience
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DOI：
10.1016/j.trd.2020.102393
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发表时间：
2020-08-01
影响因子：
7.6
通讯作者：
Hall, J. W.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Verschuur, J.;Koks, E. E.;Hall, J. W.
港口位于低洼的沿海和河流地区，容易受到自然灾害的实际影响。随之而来的中断可能会通过供应链传播，造成广泛的经济损失。以前量化港口中断风险的研究采用了关于单个港口和海洋网络物流弹性的各种建模假设。然而，有限的经验证据可用于验证这些建模假设或提供对中断期间和之后的操作适应方式的更深入了解。在这里，我们使用船舶跟踪数据来分析过去因自然灾害造成的港口中断，评估74个港口和27起灾害造成的141起中断事件。结果显示，干扰持续时间的中位数为6天，第95百分位数为22.2天。所有分析的事件都表明，多个港口同时受到影响，这对一些只关注单个港口中断的研究提出了挑战。此外，我们发现破坏的持续时间与事件的严重程度有关，风暴潮增加1.0 m或风速增加10 m/s与两天的破坏持续时间增加有关。与模型研究中的常见假设相反，在短期中断期间很少观察到港口之间的替代。另一方面，在许多港口中断的情况下，实际上会发生生产回收。简而言之，经验船舶跟踪数据为未来的建模研究提供了有价值的见解，以便更好地估计中断的程度以及港口和海事网络的潜在恢复能力。
Ports are located in low-lying coastal and riverine areas making them prone to the physical impacts of natural disasters. The consequential disruptions can potentially propagate through supply chains, resulting in widespread economic losses. Previous studies to quantify the risks of port disruptions have adopted various modelling assumptions about the resilience of individual ports and marine network logistics. However, limited empirical evidence is available to validate these modelling assumptions or to provide deeper understanding of the ways in which operations are adapted during and after disruptions. Here, we use vessel tracking data to analyse past port disruptions due to natural disasters, evaluating 141 incidences of disruptions across 74 ports and 27 disasters. Results show a median disruption duration of six days with a 95th percentile of 22.2 days. All analysed events show multiple ports being affected simultaneously, challenging some of the studies that only focus on single port disruptions. Moreover, we find that the duration of the disruption scales with the severity of the event, with an increment of 1.0 m storm surge or 10 m/s wind speed associated with a two day increase in disruption duration. In contrast to commonplace assumptions in model studies, substitution between ports is rarely observed during short-term disruptions. On the other hand, production recapture happens in practice in many cases of port disruptions. In short, empirical vessel tracking data provides valuable insights for future modelling studies in order to better approximate the extent of the disruption and the potential resilience of the port and maritime network.