Projection of precipitation extremes for eight global warming targets by 17 CMIP5 models
Projection of precipitation extremes for eight global warming targets by 17 CMIP5 models
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DOI：
10.1007/s11069-016-2553-0
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发表时间：
2016-12-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Xu, Ying
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Guo, Xiaojun;Huang, Jianbin;Xu, Ying
基于17个耦合模式比较项目第5阶段（CMIP5）的历史和未来输出，与网格化的逐日观测数据集CN05.1进行比较，评估了基线气候条件下中国极端降水的模拟。还预测了8个全球变暖目标的极端降水量变化。17个独立模式和多模式集合准确地再现了极端降水的空间分布，尽管它们捕捉时间特征的能力有限。中国东南部地区存在明显的干偏置，而华北和西北地区则存在明显的湿偏置。随着全球气温上升达到1.5、2.0、2.5、3.0、3.5、4.0、4.5和5.0 A ℃的升温目标，中国的极端降水预计将更加频繁和强烈。对于1.5 A ℃的升温目标，年降水量> 50 mm的天数（R50）和日降水量超过第99百分位数的天数（R99p）的总降水量的预测百分比变化预计将相对于基线气候增加25.81%和69.14%，4.0 A ℃升温目标分别为95.52%和162.00%。随着全球平均气温从1.5上升到5 A摄氏度，受东亚夏季风影响较大的次区域（如，中国西南部、华南和江淮流域）预计极端降水事件在天数和强度上都将大幅增加，而华北和西北地区预计将遭受相对轻微的增加。17个CMIP5模式对中国极端降水的预报不确定度随全球气温升高而增加。
Based on the historical and future outputs of 17 coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) models, simulation of the precipitation extremes in China was evaluated under baseline climate condition compared to a gridded daily observation dataset CN05.1. The variations in precipitation extremes for eight global warming targets were also projected. The 17 individual models and the multi-model ensemble accurately reproduced the spatial distribution of precipitation extremes, although they were limited in their ability to capture the temporal characteristics. A notable dry bias existed in Southeast China, while a wet bias was present in North and Northwest China. The precipitation extremes in China were projected to be more frequent and more intense as global temperature rise reached the 1.5, 2.0, 2.5, 3.0, 3.5, 4.0, 4.5, and 5.0 A degrees C warming targets. The projected percentage changes in the annual number of days with precipitation > 50 mm (R50) and total precipitation during days in which the daily precipitation exceeds the 99th percentile (R99p) are projected to increase by 25.81 and 69.14 % relative to the baseline climate for a 1.5 A degrees C warming target, and by 95.52 and 162.00 % for a 4.0 A degrees C warming target, respectively. As the global mean temperature rise increased from 1.5 to 5 A degrees C, the subregions considerably affected by the East Asian summer monsoon (e.g., Southwest China, South China, and the Yangtze-Huai River Valley) were projected to experience a more dramatic increase in extreme precipitation events, in both number of days and intensity, while North and Northwest China were projected to suffer from relatively slight increases. The model uncertainties in the projected precipitation extremes in China by 17 CMIP5 models increase as global temperature rise increases.