The impact of uncertainties on the UK's medium-term climate change targets
The impact of uncertainties on the UK's medium-term climate change targets
复制标题
不确定性对英国中期气候变化目标的影响
DOI：
10.1016/j.enpol.2015.02.030
复制
发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Watson J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Watson J
英国致力于雄心勃勃的中长期气候变化目标，包括承诺到2050年将排放量在1990年的水平上减少80%。虽然自1990年以来排放量已显著下降，但进一步减排将越来越难以实现。政府已经同意到21世纪20年代末的碳预算与80%的长期目标一致。然而，自2005年前后和2008年金融危机以来不断上涨的能源价格，导致支持这些预算和目标的政治共识出现裂痕。本文对英国商定的低碳路径在中期的可行性进行了评估，特别关注第四个碳预算（2023-27）。它分析了与特定变化相关的不确定性，这些变化可能是遵守这一碳预算所必需的——包括使电力、热力和运输脱碳的措施。该分析侧重于与能源系统特定领域相关的“工具性”不确定性（例如，家庭供暖的脱碳）和对整个能源系统具有更普遍影响的“系统性”不确定性（例如，与公众态度相关的不确定性）。制定了一个框架，根据其复杂性和对第四碳预算的潜在影响，列出并分析了这两大类下的关键不确定性。通过应用这一框架，本文还考虑了减轻或管理这些不确定性的策略，以及哪些行为者可以帮助制定和实施这些策略。
The UK is committed to ambitious medium- and long-term climate change targets, including a commitment to an 80% reduction in emissions from 1990 levels by 2050. Whilst emissions have fallen significantly since 1990, further reductions will be increasingly difficult to achieve. The government has agreed carbon budgets to the late 2020s that are consistent with the long-term 80% target. However, increasing energy prices since the mid-2000s and the 2008 financial crisis have led to cracks in the political consensus in support of these budgets and targets.This paper carries out an assessment of the feasibility of the UK's agreed low carbon pathway over the medium term, with a particular focus on the fourth carbon budget (2023–27). It analyses the uncertainties associated with the specific changes that may be necessary to comply with this carbon budget – including measures to decarbonise electricity, heat and transport. This analysis focuses on ‘instrumental’ uncertainties associated with specific areas of the energy system (e.g. the decarbonisation of heat in households) and ‘systemic’ uncertainties that tend to have more pervasive implications for the energy system as a whole (e.g. uncertainties associated with public attitudes). A framework is developed that sets out and analyses the key uncertainties under those two broad categories, in terms of their complexity and their potential impact on the fourth carbon budget. Through the application of this framework the paper also considers strategies to mitigate or manage these uncertainties, and which actors could help develop and implement these strategies.
登录
查看更多内容
转折点的风险
DOI：
10.1002/1099-1301(199907/09)1:3
发表时间：
1998
期刊：
Journal of Environmental Medicine
影响因子：
--
作者：
A. Stirling
通讯作者：
A. Stirling
交通政策和气候变化
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2009
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
D. Banister;J. Anable
通讯作者：
J. Anable
绿色新政和能源公司的义务
影响因子：
9
作者：
Jan Rosenow;N. Eyre
通讯作者：
N. Eyre
影响因子：
9
作者：
C. Butler;Christina Demski;K. Parkhill;N. Pidgeon;A. Spence
通讯作者：
C. Butler;Christina Demski;K. Parkhill;N. Pidgeon;A. Spence
使用适应性政策解决深度不确定性：第 2 节简介
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2010
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
W. Walker;V. Marchau;Darren Swanson
通讯作者：
Darren Swanson