Global Association of Cold Spells and Adverse Health Effects: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.
Global Association of Cold Spells and Adverse Health Effects: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1289/ehp.1408104
复制
发表时间：
2016-01
影响因子：
10.4
通讯作者：
Jaakkola JJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ryti NR;Guo Y;Jaakkola JJ
有大量证据表明，低温会增加死亡率。人们对被称为寒潮的长时间寒冷期的作用知之甚少。我们进行了第一次系统回顾和荟萃分析，总结了不同气候条件下寒潮对健康不利影响的证据。四个数据库（Ovid Medline, PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science）检索了所有年份和语言。“寒潮”被定义为温度低于阈值并持续至少2天的事件。在1527篇确定的文章中，26篇符合系统评价的资格标准，9篇符合meta分析的资格。根据三个主要研究问题将文章分为综合效应组、附加效应组和温度变化效应组。基于meta分析中的随机效应模型，寒冷期与所有或所有非意外原因的死亡率增加相关（总比率比= 1.10;95% CI: 1.04, 1.17，基于来自5项研究的9个估计），心血管疾病（1.11,95% CI: 1.03, 1.19；来自8项研究的12个估计），呼吸系统疾病（1.21,95% CI: 0.97, 1.51，来自4项研究的8个估计）。≥65岁人群的估计关联（1.06;95% CI: 1.00, 1.12）强于0-64岁人群（1.01;95% CI: 1.00, 1.03）。从有限数量的研究中得出的特定研究效应估计表明，发病率增加与寒潮有关，但不可能对证据进行定量总结。寒潮与全球人口死亡率上升有关。大量证据表明，寒潮还会对健康产生其他不利影响。这些研究之间存在很大的异质性，在解释结果时应考虑到这一点。李立新，郭勇，贾科拉，等。2016. 感冒期与不良健康影响的全球关联：系统回顾和荟萃分析。环境卫生展望124:12-22；http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1408104
There is substantial evidence that mortality increases in low temperatures. Less is known about the role of prolonged cold periods denoted as cold spells. We conducted the first systematic review and meta-analysis to summarize the evidence on the adverse health effects of cold spells in varying climates. Four databases (Ovid Medline, PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science) were searched for all years and languages available. “Cold spell” was defined as an event below a temperature threshold lasting for a minimum duration of 2 days. Of 1,527 identified articles, 26 satisfied our eligibility criteria for the systematic review, and 9 were eligible for meta-analyses. The articles were grouped by the three main study questions into Overall-effect Group, Added-effect Group, and Temperature-change-effect Group. Based on random-effects models in the meta-analyses, cold spells were associated with increased mortality from all or all nonaccidental causes (summary rate ratio = 1.10; 95% CI: 1.04, 1.17 based on 9 estimates from five studies), cardiovascular diseases (1.11; 95% CI: 1.03, 1.19; 12 estimates from eight studies), and respiratory diseases (1.21; 95% CI: 0.97, 1.51; 8 estimates from four studies). Estimated associations were stronger for people ≥ 65 years of age (1.06; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.12) than for people 0–64 years of age (1.01; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.03). Study-specific effect estimates from a limited number of studies suggested an increased morbidity related to cold spells, but it was not possible to quantitatively summarize the evidence. Cold spells are associated with increased mortality rates in populations around the world. The body of evidence suggests that cold spells also have other adverse health effects. There was substantial heterogeneity among the studies, which should be taken into account in the interpretation of the results. Ryti NR, Guo Y, Jaakkola JJ. 2016. Global association of cold spells and adverse health effects: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Environ Health Perspect 124:12–22; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1408104